EU to MPs: Get your own house in order

The crushing defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal in the House of Commons now begs pressing questions on both sides of the English Channel.

For all its collective bravado on the subject, the European Union is not prepared for no-deal and wiser heads in Europe know that this is a divorce where both parties are condemned to be next-door-neighbours in perpetuity.

And so, after this vote we enter a new and perilous phase.

Privately, senior officials on both sides have, in recent weeks, started to recognise this reality.

For a long time, the mantra was “May’s deal or no deal”, partly as a strategy to help May shoo the deal across the line in Westminster, but it is clear that that has now failed. The margin of defeat — 230 votes — leaves no doubt that something will need to change for both the EU and the UK to agree an orderly exit in the next few months.

But it would be a huge mistake to assume — as is so often assumed in Westminster — that it is now for the EU to reach into its negotiator’s hat and pull out a rabbit that will save the British Brexit project.

Many believe this defeat sends a clear message to the EU that they must budge (presumably on the Irish backstop), but that is not where the thinking is on the EU side.

From an EU-perspective Brexit is not first and foremost a collective responsibility but a UK decision — or more accurately, a “non-decision decision”.

For the last two years, the UK side has been politically incapable of reaching an internal agreement on what it wants. It is from this that all of the current woes in this negotiation derive.

It is true that EU officials, recognising reality, have started to talk about a willingness to extend Article 50 (at least until July).

But to make a new negotiation meaningful the UK side must turn up in Brussels with a cogent, negotiable position that convinces the 27 other EU leaders that it is worth reopening talks to get Brexit over the line.

British MPs need to make decisions based on reality. No one wants to go back to the table to go through the motions of a negotiation to further indulge the delusions of some British politicians.

Both the EU and the UK remain committed to avoiding a return to a hard border in Northern Ireland while forging a strong new trading relationship with the EU. The border issue can be solved. MPs could accept a regulatory and customs border in the Irish Sea in order to repatriate full trade independence, or opt for an ultra-close single market and customs union deal.

If the UK can come up with halfdecent answers they may yet be surprised at how much flexibility the EU will show. But, without a plan, EU leaders may refuse to extend Article 50 beyond a point.

That would present a stark choice. The UK has the power to unilaterally revoke Article 50, meaning the choice would be in British hands between a very hard landing, or revoking that letter and having no Brexit at all.