Challenge for Corbyn is no-deal

Now Jeremy Corbyn’s no-confidence motion against the Government has failed, there will be a greater push for a second referendum.

The official People’s Vote campaign knows full well that they are still on the back foot. As it stands, they do not have the numbers to secure a re-run and know that their best hope is to wait out the clock and hope that MPs prefer a second vote to a no-deal exit.

That’s why there was no amendment to deliver another referendum put by the cross-party campaign to May’s doomed deal.

All of which makes life a little bit easier for Corbyn. He doesn’t want another Brexit vote, because he is by instinct a Eurosceptic and believes that committing will mean he loses the next election by isolating many Labour voters who voted Leave. Even if Labour’s formal position were to change, that would not create a parliamentary majority for a second vote — in no small part because there is so little enthusiasm among Tories.

There is also the fact that Labour Party activists do not place a high priority on Brexit. Corbyn is aligned with them on most issues so they are relaxed that, on the question of a second vote, he and they are at odds.

Does that mean that Corbyn is free to do what he wishes on Brexit? No, but it isn’t a Remainer revolt that he should fear. His big challenge is the pressure to take decisive action to prevent a no-deal Brexit. A large number of Labour MPs want a Brexit deal done and hope that, if they vote for an unpopular softer Brexit deal, they will be able to persuade local party members that they did their best to trigger an election and had no choice but to sign up to avoid no-deal.

The Labour leader might be tempted to present himself as a mature politician who will sign up to a softened version of May’s deal in the national interest. Or he might dodge taking a proper stance and frame himself as the victim of Labour MPs undermining him. So while Remainer Tory MPs strategise to stop Brexit, closet Leaver Corbyn could bring us closer to no deal.