Trump may be rarity to trip in re-election
Electability. All members of the growing band of Democrats seeking their party’s 2020 presidential nomination need it. It’s an essential question: Can they beat Donald Trump? As he today starts his third year as US President, it’s also worth considering how electable Trump himself is. He still has an aura left over from 2016 for many. To them, he achieved the unexpected once, he can do it again.
What contributes to that impression is his ability to dominate the limelight and set the news agenda.
Will any of his presidential opponents be able to create a rival force-field around themselves?
People who see Trump as formidable also note how forcefully he operates: pushing against governing traditions; maintaining a base of supporters; using that to keep his party in line; being prepared to offend and do the unthinkable.
Being the incumbent, with the authority of the position, is a huge advantage. Everything he does is given media coverage. Sitting US presidents rarely lose re-election bids.
Presidents tend to benefit when the economy is doing well. The economic picture is uncertain, but unemployment remains low. The Russia probe is yet to detonate and is an unknown factor. Trump’s base helps him under the Electoral College where a handful of states will be key.
His advantages will keep him competitive, but he will stay within reach and be beatable.
Trump has stayed the same while opponents’ attitudes towards him have hardened.
A new Pew Research Centre poll shows his approval rating has not improved since his inauguration on January 21, 2017. It was 39 per cent in February 2017 and is 37 per cent now. Remember, Trump in 2016 scraped in with a low 46 per cent against an unpopular opponent.
His rhetoric, style and issues remain broadly the same as in early 2016. Trump made a clear argument about immigration before November’s Midterms and his party lost 40 House seats. He is back to the same issue.
An NPR, PBS, Marist poll last week asked Americans if they planned to vote for Trump in 2020. Only 30 per cent said they definitely planned to, 57 per cent said they definitely wouldn’t.
The Midterms showed voters were energised. Turnout reached the highest level for a Midterm since 1914 with 50.3 per cent of people eligible voting. Normally it’s about 10 per cent less than that. In the House election, 60.7 million voted Democrat to 51 million who voted Republican. In comparison, Trump received 63 million votes in 2016 on a presidential election turnout of 60.1 per cent.
Considering he inherited a good economy, he should be doing a lot better. Trump hobbles himself with his inexperience, incompetence, strategic approach and character. A more generic Republican would not have been as relentlessly divisive and ruled just for his base. Against a good Democratic ticket, he will need more than his base. He’s battling historic unpopularity and entrenched attitudes towards him.
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