The next five years likely to be the hottest on record, scientists warn

While 2018 was the fourth-warmest year on record, British meteorologists predict the next five years will be much hotter, maybe even record-breaking.

Two US agencies, the United Kingdom Met Office and the World Meteorological Organisation analysed global temperatures in slightly different ways, but yesterday each came to the same conclusion: 2018 was the fourth-warmest year on record behind 2016, 2015 and 2017.

The United States Government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last year’s average temperature was 14.69C, which was 0.79C warmer than the 20th century average. Much of Europe had its warmest years on record. Records date back to 1880.

In the United States, Nasa and NOAA climate scientists said that even though 2018 was a tad cooler than the three previous years, that was mostly due to random weather variations.

“Never mind the little wiggles from year to year. The trend is going relentlessly up, and it will continue to do so,” Potsdam Institute climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf said in an email. “Those who live in denial of this fact are in denial of physics.”

Using computer simulations, the British weather office forecasts that the next five years will average between 14.73C to 15.27C. That would be warmer than the last four years.

Outside scientists, such as Natalie Mahowald of Cornell University, said the forecast is consistent with what

The trend is going relentlessly up, and it will continue to do so. Those who live in denial of this fact are in denial of physics.

Stefan Rahmstorf

researchers know about warming and natural variability.

The obvious long-term trend of steady warming makes it easier to more accurately predict near future warming, said Nasa chief climate scientist Gavin Schmidt.

The US temperature last year was the 14th warmest on average, said NOAA climate monitoring chief Deke Arndt. Last year was also the third wettest on record in the US. Nine eastern states had their wettest years on record, “an exclamation point on a trend of big rain” in the age of climate change, Arndt said.

There were 14 weather and climate disasters last year that cost the US more than US$1 billion ($1.48b), for a total of US$91b, Arndt said. At least 247 people died in those disasters. That’s the fourth-highest number of billiondollar disasters and the fourth-highest dollar amount, taking inflation into account. The damage included Hurricane Michael’s US$25b tally and US$24b each from Hurricane Florence and the western wildfires.