Why Wales aren’t in contention for Cup

Right, then, Wales. Your moment of reckoning nears.

This time, hiding behind the underdog tag won’t do. No more nearly men. Nothing but victory will suffice. The time to rise up is now.

Eleven straight wins is commendable and all. Equalling the Welsh record set from 1907-1910 after a first November sweep, which included grinding wins over the woeful Wallabies, and Springboks, is nothing to be scoffed at.

But no result makes you sit up and believe Wales have suddenly turned the rugby world on its head.

Six of those wins were at home — another rather meaningless against a second-string Springboks team in Washington.

The point is, to be considered genuine World Cup contenders, Wales must upset England next week in Cardiff to keep the Six Nations title race alive.

Achieve that feat and, given the formidable form England have found, Wales will be viewed in a different context.

Defeat of any kind in Cardiff — narrow, gallant, wide — and Wales will head to Japan lacking fear factor when it comes to test rugby’s top tier. That is their brutal reality.

The hailed comeback in their opening Six Nations match in Paris, after falling 16 points behind by halftime, was immediately put in context by events at Twickenham and the sad state of this French team on the verge of another mutiny.

And while head coach Warren Gatland has an out, of sorts, after making 10 changes for last week’s dire test in Rome, much more was expected than the 11-point margin against an Italian team that has now lost 34 of 35 games against tier one opposition.

The All Blacks were far from full strength when they embarrassed Italy at the same venue last year, running in 10 tries in the 66-3 romp.

Neither Gareth Anscombe nor Dan Biggar asserted dominance against France or Italy in the starting playmaking roles, both making an impact off the bench rather than commanding from the outset.

Classy loose forward Josh Navidi can’t carry Wales every week.

In their first, rampant 40 minutes in Paris, France repeatedly exposed Wales with the offload, too. With Manu Tuilagi and Billy Vunipola coming to town that is a worry, though news damaging prop Mako Vunipola has been ruled out of the tournament due to an ankle injury lessens that threat, somewhat.

Whatever it takes, Wales need to take this next step or internal belief as much as anything else risks coming to a standstill.

Ireland

Two steps back against England, one forward in Edinburgh, seems fitting to describe Ireland’s tournament to date. Joe Schmidt devised another stunning pet play for Jacob Stockdale’s try — his 13th in 16 tests. The cleverly planned switch move around the ruck with Jonathan Sexton provided another reminder of Schmidt’s ability to roll out new tricks.

On the whole, though, Ireland are still well short of their best this year. Injuries to the midfield, loose forwards and second row haven’t helped — nor the loss of Sexton after 23 minutes in the 22-13 win over Scotland.

But it is hard to shake the sense Ireland’s attacking game must find another gear before Japan

France

Chaotic, headless, what an utter shambles France were at Twickenham. France never cease to amaze with the depths they can hit but one expects more from teenagers than this performance.

The French backfield — compared to the Sahara, Antarctica and Australia’s outback such was the vast expanse — conceded five of England’s six tries after coach Jacques Brunel selected two centres, Damian Penaud and Gael Fickou, on the wings and winger, Yoann Huget, at fullback.

An unnamed French player told sports newspaper Midi Olympique of the second half of the 44-8 defeat, France’s worst against England since 1911: “Nobody knew which positions to play. We were lost on the pitch.”

In what has been described as a potential rebellion rising, French halfback Morgan Parra took aim at Brunel post-match.

“I think that we are capable of doing what the English do, but are we working on this during training? I think we don’t work on it enough, even not at all,” Parra claimed. “Yet these are very simple things that are today part of high level rugby. We can do this. But do we work on it? No.”

This comes after referee Wayne Barnes had to inform Clermont lock Sebastien Vahaamahina he was captain during the second half of France’s opening loss in Paris.

France are, of course, no strangers to uprisings. Players turned against coach Marc Lievremont during New Zealand’s 2011 World Cup, where they lost the final by one point to the All Blacks.

Head coach Eddie Jones’ comments on England’s kicking game were, meanwhile, just as telling — not only of his side’s tactics, either.

“We just think that’s the way the game is going,” Jones said. “If teams defend as they do now, there’s space in the backfield. If they don’t fill it we’ve got an opportunity with our pace to convert that into points.”