Beating the All Blacks blues
5 All Blacks anxiety traps to avoid
Rugby’s interminable pre-season continued in Wellington last weekend, when even late drama couldn’t prevent the latest chapter of All Blacks-Springboks rivalry being filed under “I” for irrelevant.
It’s been a challenging year for a rugby fan, with a lacklustre Super Rugby season proving little more than a coronation for the Crusaders.
If your postal code places you anywhere south of Picton or north of Oamaru, you probably view the “Super” season with a lot more affection, but in five years, I suspect any neutral would struggle to recall a game outside perhaps the semifinal against the Hurricanes.
That collective ennui has worked its way into the truncated Rugby Championship.
The opening fortnight has seen three close games, yet it’s also been home to as much quality drama as an Adam Sandler vehicle.
New Zealand’s four-point victory in Buenos Aires spoke more to the Pumas getting stage fright as their biggest moment approached, rather than any great reserves of resilience.
The 16-16 result in Wellington was about as tranquil as a last-minute draw could be (although Brodie Retallick might dispute that term).
It was hardly surprising. Although the Springboks huffed and puffed to great effect, no coaching staff worth their sea salt is going to put their full wares on display when these two teams are soon set to meet on the second day of the World Cup — arguably the most pivotal pool match of the tournament.
It is why increasingly nervous All Blacks fans need to take a deep breath before falling into the usual anxiety traps, a few of which we shall traverse now.
Trap One: The captain is a spent force
On the surface, the evidence is damning. Even taking into account Kieran Read’s evolution from a near-unstoppable edge runner and offloader into more of a grafting
No 8, you cannot make a case that the skipper is the force of nature he was in the early years of this decade.
However, we’ve been down this route before with legendary figures leading All Blacks into World Cups.
Some 119 tests have clearly taken their toll on Read but you’d be a brave man to back against him having three or four big tests left in that still imposing frame.
Do not expect to see peak Read until Yokohama. Trap two: Ben Smith is a spent force
As Smith spilled another box kick on Saturday, it was easy to see a) the erosion in high-ball confidence of a man once as safe as a steak at a vegan convention, and b) the tactics of every team the All Blacks will meet in 2019.
There was a time when to criticise Smith was to risk excommunication from the South, but at 33, it is OK to wonder if the springs in his boots might be showing signs of rust. If Beauden Barrett is a 15 (more on that soon), are there better, faster wings?
These are all valid questions, which can be probably trumped by this: If you’re playing in a tight, nervy World Cup knockout match and the opposition are intent on peppering the All Blacks back three with high kicks, who do you trust most to make the best decisions and take the ball under pressure?
Sure, it’d be nice of Smith to wrap his arms around a few before they leave for Japan but it seems inconceivable he won’t be one of Steve Hansen’s safety blankets.
Trap three: The backline suffers when Aaron Smith is off
This is a much kinder way of saying: the backline suffers when TJ Perenara plays.
It’s a different game when Perenara plays. He has some great gifts, including toughness and the ability to win turnover ball, but the All Blacks from 10 to 15 look less fluid when he’s directing traffic from the base. His super-telegraphed kicking style is pretty annoying, too. Again, avoid panicking. Perenara’s role in crucial games is likely to be, to steal a baseball analogy, as a late-innings closer rather than tempo setter.
There’s also another arrow in Hansen’s quiver. Brad Weber is no neophyte taken along for experience. He was the best halfback in Super Rugby and plays at a speed that might complement this team’s strengths more than Perenara’s more combative style does at present.
Perenara was a worry on the weekend but not enough to lose sleep over.
Trap four: Barrett’s goalkicking
After regaining a bit of trust over the past 12 months, confidence in Barrett’s reliability off the tee took a dive on Saturday.
It seems you’re better off taking a ticket in the lottery than backing Barrett from anywhere from the righthand post to the tramlines. Time and again, that has proven to be his horror zone.
If, like many, you’re not convinced installing Richie Mo’unga as No 10 is the smartest thing to do this close to a World Cup and you’re already anxious about Barrett’s kicking, then there’s no quick fix for you here, but there’s little doubt if Barrett plays 15
All Blacks fans need to take a deep breath before falling into the usual anxiety traps.
and doesn’t kick, there’s a very good chance he’ll be the best player on the pitch.
On second reading, this may not have done much to ease anxiety.
Trap five: Retallick’s health
The news appears brighter than it did on Saturday night. Any time the 2014 World Player of the Year isn’t on the field, it’s a blow, though somewhat softened by the rapid rise of Scott Barrett.
While it’s tempting to think the drop-off after the top three is precipitous, there is evidence Patrick Tuipulotu can play at test level, he’s just struggled to string meaningful performances together.
A Retallick-less World Cup would be tougher but not terminal.
These traps, from one to five, were magnified by that excuse for a test in Wellington. The wheels of the All Blacks machine look like they are being greased by sesame oil at the moment but they are a long way from falling off.
They were never going to try to hit top speed against a World Cup opponent this close to the real thing. Nor would you expect them to be in high-mode for Bledisloe Pt I in Perth in 11 days.
If you’re still feeling the same sense of agitation and still asking the same questions come Pt II in Auckland on August 17, then yeah, it’s okay to panic.