Keeping the faith as ABs unlock defence

The All Blacks, should they be crowned world champions this year, seem destined to do so in such a way that they also return as the people’s champion — hailed the team that freed the global game from the tyranny of rush defences.

Test football has been shackled by the realisation across the Tier One nations that it’s easier to build an effective defence than an attack.

Success is being achieved by sides with little imagination or creativity, only an insatiable desire to charge off the defensive line and make tackles.

If it seems a long time since test football was the domain of attacking genius and clever use of the ball, it’s because it is.

The free-wheeling All Blacks of 2016 who were conjuring tries from all corners of the field are but a distant memory, and since 2017, there’s barely been a test between major nations where rush defences didn’t dominate.

History won’t fondly recall the last two years and will mark the Lions tour of 2017 as the point when coaching mindsets changed.

The Lions smothered the All Blacks, blitzed them into making mistakes and nullified their attacking threat. It was a tactical masterstroke, and since they pulled it off so memorably, they have inspired just about every leading coach in test football to adopt that same basic concept.

And so, with the World Cup only weeks away, it appears as if the tournament will be endless games of relentless carnage where there is no space, no time and no means for the ball players to make their mark.

But the All Blacks have signalled this is not their vision of how things will transpire and have put themselves in a race against time to arrive in Japan with the key to unlock any defence.

They have chosen a different path to the likes of Wales, who are pinning their World Cup dream on the limitations of the straight running, big tackling Hadleigh Parkes, and South Africa, who are going to use their muscularity to tackle teams into submission and then pounce on their mistakes.

The All Blacks are planning to zig to everyone else’s zag and trust that they have the decision-making nous, ball skills, awareness and athletic prowess to pass, catch, kick and run their way to victory in Japan.

How close they are to discovering an attacking formula that can damage defensively-minded teams is open to interpretation. Based on their first two test outings of 2019, in which they have scored three tries and struggled with their basics, it may look like they have made next to no progress.

But just as true is that they have had next to no time to bring it all together, and in the coming weeks, we should see this All Blacks side deliver increasing evidence they are building the sort of attacking culture they say they are.

And this is why things are truly fascinating. The All Blacks have held back their true attacking blueprint until now.

They have seen this defensive surge in the past two years, been victims of it, and become acutely aware of the need to find a way to conquer it.

But the All Blacks haven’t wanted to show their hand early. They have been formulating counter strategies throughout the past 18 months but haven’t wanted to reveal anything too far in advance of the World Cup.

This is why they didn’t start any tests last year with both Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett on the field.

This is why they didn’t play further from the gainline as they now intend and didn’t reveal their kicking strategies last year because, to some extent, they were happy to borrow from General Sun Tzu and make everyone think they were weak where they were actually strong.

They have taken a calculated risk that with five tests before the World Cup, they have enough time to build and perfect their attacking plan, but not enough for opponents to adapt and adjust to what they are seeing.

If it all works out, the All Blacks will arrive in Japan capable of using considered, strategic decisionmaking to create space and instinctive, innate brilliance to exploit it on the pitch.

If it all works, the All Blacks will be playing one sort of game and everyone else another and the age of blitz defence will be over.

But right now, it takes an element of faith to see that picture, as the

All Blacks haven’t delivered much evidence in their first two tests that they can build what has been submitted on the plans, as it were.

Give it another three tests, though. Another seven weeks of training and a pre-World Cup camp in Japan, and that leap of faith may no longer be needed.