Politics and conscience both in the mix in this reform

Justice Minister Andrew Little’s proposed abortion reform package serves to highlight the fact that before women can have choice the politicians must make one first.

In making his decision — and securing Cabinet support for it — Little has chosen the reform most likely to get enough support to push it over the line in Parliament.

Hence, he opted for a split regime of allowing women to make a decision on abortion themselves up to the point of 20 weeks.

It is earlier than the Law Commission’s recommended 22 week cut-off to align with the current regime which sets a higher threshold for abortions after 20 weeks.

Doctors who object to abortion will not have to directly refer patients to another provider, but will have to tell them where to find a list of them.

Little’s proposals will not fully please any of those most concerned — from conscientious objector doctors to pro- and anti-choice groups — but nor will it peeve them off as much as it could have.

Now Little has got the bill over the line in Cabinet, it will be a conscience vote for MPs in Parliament.

But conscience will not be the only factor in play. Politics will be too.

Most — but likely not all — Labour MPs will follow the Prime Minister’s lead and support change. The Green Party has said its MPs will support it.

But there is no guarantee NZ First agreeing to allow a bill in Cabinet will translate into its MPs voting for it.

The conservative and religious vote base is not an insignificant one and is being buffeted on more than one front — euthanasia is in play, as well as the liberalisation of drug laws.

That will be weighing on the mind of National Party leader Simon Bridges and many of his MPs.

Some in National support reform — among them Amy Adams and Chris Bishop. But some, such as Alfred Ngaro and Chris Penk, oppose it.

Bishop and Penk have already exchanged light blows on Twitter.

Were Bridges an ordinary MP, he could simply sit with his natural inclinations as a religious and conservative person on such matters.

But as leader he faces an added complexity. Leaders set the tone and Bridges may well find his natural inclinations up against politics.

As things stand now, Bridges is open to reform but will want tighter controls on later-term pregnancies.

He will remember the promise to reform abortion law was made by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on the election campaign — and voting for it will help her deliver on that.

Nor is Ardern planning to keep a distance from it now, saying she hopes to speak at the bill’s first reading on Thursday.

Bridges may also consider that anyone for whom this is a votedefining issue is likely already in Ardern’s pool.

But the memory of Sue Bradford’s anti-smacking bill may also be in his mind if the vote is looking close.

National’s then leader John Key offered support for that in the end — it helped Key project leadership and a more socially friendly image while Labour copped most flak from those opposed to it.

But conservative voters will be looking to National MPs and NZ First to hold their line. Bridges will not want to cede the conservative ground to NZ First. But appeasing that set of voters risks ticking off another substantial group of voters: Women.

Bridges may well find it harder to strike the balance between peeving and pleasing than Little did.