Clouds gather

NZX big guns report results this week amid an uncertain economic outlook

Some of our biggest companies from a2 Milk to Fletcher report this week but analysts are focusing ahead

The sharemarket big guns report annual results this week and while most are expected to deliver earnings growth, analysts are focusing on outlook comments as the economy cools.

Property for Industry, Mercury Energy, Fletcher Building, Spark, a2 Milk, Auckland International Airport and Air NZ are all due to report their June year results, mid-way through what has so far been a “no surprises” reporting season.

“There is growth, but it’s low growth,” Richard Stubbs, co-founder of Castle Point Funds Management, said.

For a recapitalised Fletcher Building, it will be a welcome return to the black after a couple of tough years

plagued by cost over-runs on construction projects, while Auckland Airport and Air New Zealand will be feeling the effects of a slowdown in the tourism sector.

Stubbs said there was still a risk of negative surprises to come out of Fletcher Building.

“A lot of their New Zealand businesses are great.

“But they do face some headwinds at the moment with the construction cycle potentially topping out and the risks around some of its legacy contracts,” he said.

Market favourite a2 Milk looks set to report yet another huge lift in earnings, while Mercury Energy is expected to report a solid performance.

Rob Mercer, head of wealth management research at Forsyth Barr, said the results should show growth for most — but the big question will be what lies ahead.

“We are seeing some good results but on average we are heading into a lower growth outlook,” he said.

“And we are heading into economic conditions that could deteriorate.”

Mercer said the local economy faces headwinds, particularly in agriculture.

“It is obvious to us that the health of the farming sector is challenged,” he said, adding that tight credit conditions — even though interest rates are low — were making their presence felt in the sector.

Spark is expected to report steady earnings but some analysts expect to see the telco pull back on its special dividend payout.

Yet another explosive lift in earnings is expected from alternative milk company a2 Milk, built on its ongoing success in Australia and China, and following its big push into the United States.

Mercer expects most of the power companies to report strong earnings, but the question remains whether future earnings prospects could justify their very high share prices.

“It’s been a great sector but at the moment it looks fully priced — and it’s not the only sector that looks fully priced.”

Mercury Energy is likely to report an earnings decline, reflecting the change of a bumper year for hydro generation volumes relative to the 2018/19 year, which showed a return to the long run average.

Even so, research from Forsyth Barr said Mercury was able to capitalise on some of the higher priced periods in the wholesale electricity market in the year just past.

Air NZ looks set to feel the pinch of increased jet fuel prices with the consensus of market forecasts predicting a 33 per cent drop in its earnings.

Ongoing expenses associated with Dreamliner Rolls-Royce engine problems are also expected to bite the national carrier.

And we are heading into economic conditions that could deteriorate.

Rob Mercer, Forsyth Barr