Brexit votes put Boris in a bind

The narrowing of Johnson’s options is a sudden turn of events

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s dreams of an election that would clear his path to Brexit by the end of October have been decisively dashed, leaving him with no obvious means of making good on his vow of a “do or die” exit from the European Union.

The latest obstacle to Johnson’s plans came in the form of yet another defeat in the House of Commons, where the once-swaggering Prime Minister has lost every key vote of his young premiership.

Yesterday was the second time in as many weeks that Johnson has asked for Parliament to allow a fresh election, only to be rebuffed by a unified opposition.

“Why are they conniving to delay Brexit?” Johnson taunted as a rowdy debate kicked off, with his fellow Tories cheering him on. “The only possible explanation is they fear we will win.”

MPs began debating the issue hours after Speaker John Bercow surprised his colleagues by announcing he would step aside within weeks. The Speaker has become a polarising figure in a country divided sharply along Brexit lines.

With Parliament suspended for the next five weeks, the defeat leaves Johnson with virtually no chance of getting a fresh vote before October 31, the deadline by which Britain is due to leave the EU.

The Prime Minister had hoped an election could restore the majority he lost last week through a combination of defections and ejections, and give him a free hand to follow through on his promise to lead Britain out of the EU — even if there’s no deal with European leaders.

Instead, Johnson is now in a bind: He has insisted he will not ask the EU for an extension — he said last

week he “would rather be dead in a ditch”. But a law passed by rebel MPs requires him to seek one if there’s still no deal by October 19.

Hard line Brexiteers have suggested, and Johnson critics have warned, that the Prime Minister could defy the law. Johnson has refused to say whether he would comply. There is no modern precedent for a British leader willfully ignoring an act of Parliament.

Analysts say Johnson’s best hope may now be to strike a slightly improved deal with the EU. Johnson may struggle to get any agreement passed in Parliament.

The sudden narrowing of Johnson’s options represents a remarkable turn of events for a Prime Minister who, less than two weeks ago, appeared to control his own destiny — and the fate of Brexit.

He announced a plan to suspend Parliament for much of September and half of October, leaving MPs with little time — perhaps not enough, some theorised — to block his plans to lead Britain over the cliff of a nodeal Brexit if no agreement could be reached. But the formerly fractious opposition quickly unified to disrupt his plans. When he offered an election two years after the last one — something opposition leaders had repeatedly demanded — they turned him down.

“It’s possible that every single defeat and every awkward speech and all the difficulties were part of some master plan to produce a future election victory,” said Tony Travers, a political scientist at the London School of Economics. “But if you stand back and look at what’s going on, they have, to a degree, lost control of events.”

Whether he can regain that control could hinge on his dealings with Europe in the coming weeks.

Polls show Johnson’s Conservatives with a significant lead over the Labour Party. Whenever an election comes — analysts say November is now likely — Johnson is expected to play on frustration among pro-Brexit voters who blame opposition leaders for the country’s inability to get out.

But with multiple choices for both the pro- and anti-EU side on the ballot, any election is highly unpredictable.