Poll points to white-knuckle ride to election for leaders

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National leader Simon Bridges will have a white-knuckle ride to the 2020 election if the polls stay this close.

But a very chipper Bridges will be rolling up to Parliament today after two polls showed National continued to rise and Labour dropping.

The latest poll — the 1 News Colmar Brunton — delivered the best news for Bridges, putting National in a position to govern with the support of just one Act MP. The poll had National neckand-neck with the Labour-Green combination, at 47 per cent, and NZ First out of Parliament.

It marks the end of a strong couple of months for Bridges and National, who have hammered home messages on business confidence and government effectiveness. But the more gratifying news for Bridges was the sign National Party voters were finally, albeit slowly, starting to accept him as leader.

Bridges is still below 10 per cent as preferred Prime Minister — Ardern is at 38 — but at least he’s heading in the right direction and his main rival Judith Collins is waning.

Over the past two months, Labour churned out publicity material and online advertisements about the Government’s achievements but has struggled to dampen negative publicity about programmes such as KiwiBuild and to get over internal problems, such as its handling of allegations against a staffer.

The most damaging element is not in the details about who did what, rather it’s the question of whether a party that cannot run itself can run the country.

The Prime Minister’s trip to New York was the circuit breaker, but did not pay the same dividends for her as the year before.

The drop for Labour was less in the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll than the Newshub poll, but it was down to just 40 per cent, a mark that was considered to be “danger” territory for Bridges’ leadership when National dropped below it earlier this year.

It won’t be danger territory for Ardern but Labour’s minds will be frantically trying to come up with a way to claw back ground or at least halt the slippage.

The 1 News poll also showed how much ground was still in play.

The percentage of undecided voters had rocketed from 13 per cent to 18 per cent. That means almost one in five voters are going begging with less than a year until the election.

There was no good news for NZ First, but some good news for the Green Party. Its support plummeted from around 10 per cent to 6 per cent after Ardern took over as leader in 2017, staking out issues such as climate change, the environment and poverty.

The party has gained very slightly in both polls, perhaps showing some of those voters Ardern took are returning out of disillusionment.

Within minutes of Newshub’s poll being aired on Sunday night, an email was sent out to party supporters by Labour, soliciting donations to help fund the 2020 election campaign.

Its internal issues have also been damaging to the party’s coffers as it pays for various lawyers and reviews into the case of allegations against a former staffer.

A second email that went out after the poll was from the Act Party and was a jubilant cry about its Newshub poll result of 1.4 per cent — enough to get a second MP into Parliament.

“The picture we’ve waited eight years to see!” it crowed, “A second MP in Parliament.”

There is a reason for Act’s delight, although it is not referred to in the email.

If Act stands a chance of getting a second MP into Parliament, it pretty much makes it a done deal for National to again ask Epsom voters to support Act leader David Seymour.

Even in the unlikely scenario National pulled the pin on the deal, it increases the chances of Epsom voters taking it upon themselves to keep Seymour in.