Underdog status underlines Ireland’s fall

The All Blacks and Ireland, two of the best teams in recent years, meeting in the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals swiftly traverses the improbable to reality spectrum.

Either proud nation departing Japan this weekend was once unthinkable. This time last year, they were out on their own, seemingly on a collision course for the World Cup final. How quickly that changed.

At their first media call of this quarter-final week in Tokyo, the All Blacks stressed history is irrelevant. Who fronts now matters most.

While that is true, history does matter because it sets the scene for what has become a great rivalry, one from a New Zealand perspective that probably sits on par with the Springboks.

The All Blacks don’t take kindly to defeat. After two losses in their past three tests against Ireland, complacency will not be an issue.

History also matters because it provides context to the trajectories of both sides, an element that builds or erodes the self-confidence of all individuals and teams.

At the end of 2018, Ireland were on top of the world. They had trumped all Six Nations rivals and all four Rugby Championship heavyweights. They were near unbeatable, losing one test in Australia. Then suddenly the hunters became the hunted, the mantle possibly became too much to bear, and Schmidt’s empire came crumbling down.

This year, Ireland lost twice to England and once to Wales before their shock defeat to Japan threw them into the All Blacks’ path earlier than expected.

Ireland were first brought back to earth by England’s brutal assault in the opening Six Nations game of the year. Schmidt confessed the nature of that defeat left Ireland broken.

Questions remain whether their belief and confidence has since recovered. England were the first to expose that dominating collisions is enough to disrupt their prescriptive game, one based around retaining possession, Conor Murray’s box kicks, carrying and defending strongly, and the odd trick play.

Getting the attitude and intent right in this area goes a long way to victory against Ireland. Think back to 2016, and the response to their maiden defeat to Ireland in Chicago, and the All Blacks won the war in the return test in Dublin that is remembered as one of the most physical occasions of the modern era.

There have been signs of recent life from Ireland. Their suffocating opening World Cup win over Scotland rejuvenated faith in Andy Farrell’s defensive strengths. And they comfortably put away Samoa, but in between times, they have been far from impressive.

In Tadhg Furlong and James Ryan, Ireland boast two of the world’s best tight forwards. In addition to the air, they will challenge the All Blacks set piece and target the breakdown.

But as rugby appears to swing from defence-dominated mantras to attacking-minded pace, skill and freedom of expression, Ireland have not adapted or adjusted. They appear the same team of 2018. Only now, opponents know the blueprint.

With ruck speed, offloads and width, Japan exposed Ireland in a performance that no doubt offered the All Blacks plenty of insight about where vulnerabilities lie.

The All Blacks attacking pod structures, with Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett pulling the strings from either side of the field, have advanced their game significantly since their loss in Dublin.

Ireland have regressed in that time to land in a similar position to four years ago — carrying the burden of having never made it beyond this World Cup juncture.

For all the meticulous planning and preparation, for all the success of last year, Schmidt could not have asked for a tougher assignment.

Underdogs is where Ireland prefer to be. That such status is now firmly entrenched signals just how far they have fallen. Last year, a World Cup match between these teams would be considered even odds.

To achieve history, and knock out the All Blacks, Ireland must again traverse the improbable to reality spectrum.