Pork producers on high alert
Warning for Oz, NZ as virus reported in Timor Leste
New Zealand and Australian pork producers are on high alert after African swine fever (ASF) drew closer to home with an outbreak reported in Timor-Leste.
Timor-Leste, 650km north of Australia, is the 10th Asian country report an outbreak of the disease.
NZ Pork general manager David Baines, who this week attended the Australasian Pig Science Association convention in Adelaide, said the arrival of ASF near Australian borders had heightened pork producers’ concern on both sides of the Tasman.
NZ Pork has warned that New Zealand’s pork industry would be decimated if the virus hit the country.
China, which reported the first case of ASF a year ago, has culled more than 131 million pigs, or about 40 per cent of its herd.
“Talking to our friends at [industry group] Australian Pork Ltd there is a high level of concern over ASF and they are undertaking significant lobbying to all levels of Government to raise awareness and to seek higher levels of biosecurity,” Baines said.
The concern in Australia was the ease with which the disease could hit there — particularly in the north.
“In northern Australia, there is a high density of wild pigs, and that’s seen as the most likely vector through which the disease could arrive.”
Australian pork prices have risen due to the onset of ASF in various pork-producing countries. Farmgate prices have risen by about A$1 to A$3.50/kg while the New Zealand farmgate price has risen by 40c/kg.
Baines said NZ retail prices had risen more in proportion to local farmgate prices because NZ imports about 60 per cent of its pork.
He said the Christmas ham prices could lift a little compared with this time last year, as a result of ASF.
Baines said NZ Pork was “doing everything we can” to work with the Government. “The whole pathway of illegally imported product — whether it is through personal consignments or undeclared product — is a huge risk to the pig industry.”
ASF is spread though contact with an infected animal.
NZ Pork said NZ has about 100 commercial pig farms but estimated pigs are kept on at least 5500 properties outside the commercial industry.
Rural lending specialist Rabobank said NZ red-meat producers were set to benefit as ASF “overwhelms” global animal protein outlook.
“With ASF set to restrict global growth in animal proteins, New Zealand red-meat producers can look forward to continued strong pricing for their beef and sheepmeat exports in the coming year,” it said in its Global Animal Protein Outlook for 2020.
Rabobank said China’s production losses resulting from ASF exceeded the growth in all other regions combined.
Chinese pork production is expected to decline by a further 10 to 15 per cent from 2019 levels and, while less than the decline in 2019, the report says it will ensure 2020 production is well below the 2014-18 average, before the major ASF outbreak.
Rabobank animal proteins analyst Blake Holgate said the pork supply gap created by ASF had been a key factor in the surge of Kiwi beef exports into China during 2019, and this trend was set to extend into 2020.
In the United States — New Zealand’s second largest market for beef — the bank also expects good returns in 2020 due to a combination of limited availability of New Zealand beef supplies and what it expects to be an easing of the kiwi dollar.