Options limited as sack race hots up
Quartet under pressure but top replacements not abundant
Following a weekend of angst when the future of four English Premier League managers appears in the balance, the same message seems to come back: who is a viable alternative? Who can a club realistically appoint if they want to make a change?
The bookmakers love to call it “the sack race” and it is one of the more unsavoury aspects of their business that they delight in compiling odds on which manager is facing dismissal.
But a top four now of Marco Silva, Unai Emery, Manuel Pellegrini and Quique Sanchez Flores, with short odds, is not unreasonable, which will come as mild relief to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Ralph Hasenhuttl.
Everton, Arsenal, West Ham and, to a lesser degree, Watford think they not only have strong enough squads to be competing far higher in the table but should not be in the predicaments in which they find themselves.
Arsenal have told Emery he has to deliver Champions League football, while the top six was the aim for Everton and West Ham. Watford expected to be in the top 10. Whether any of those expectations were realistic is another matter.
The question for all these clubs is: should they make that change, then what next? At the top of the market, Mauricio Pochettino and Max Allegri are out there but can they be hired?
There is an expectation Pochettino is closing in on Bayern Munich and, while Allegri is taking English lessons, the Italian may not want to take a job mid-season in a league in which he has not worked before. Big managers do not move during seasons — which makes Jose Mourinho joining Spurs all the more interesting and a sign of his desperation to get back in.
There is not only a perceived dearth of available candidates, but to extricate some from their contracts is regarded as too expensive. Which is strange. In a world where clubs do not balk at paying £20 million for a right back who might not cut it, they are reluctant to invest a similar sum in a coach who might whip that defender into shape.
At the same time, employing a manager is becoming increasingly expensive. At West Ham, Pellegrini is earning £7 million a year, at least twice as much as his predecessors.
Traditionally, clubs would have looked down the divisions, but managers are rarely taken out of the Championship or League One and given the opportunity to manage in the Premier League now. The last off-season was the anomaly, with two appointments: Frank Lampard, who departed Derby to take over at Chelsea, and Graham Potter leaving Swansea for Brighton. Steve Bruce also made the move from Sheffield Wednesday to Newcastle, but brought significant top flight experience with him.
Research by 21st Club, a consultancy that analyses data and trends, shows that during 2010-15 no manager who started in the third tier of English football progressed to the
Premier League. There is a sharp contrast with Italy, where 10 managers achieved that, and Spain, where the total was 14, with an obvious correlation between the existence of B teams.
In Germany, there is a different trend, with clubs more likely to promote an assistant, as Hoffenheim did with Julian Nagelsmann, who is now coaching RB Leipzig and is coveted in the Premier League. In turn, Nagelsmann was succeeded at Hoffenheim by his assistant, Alfred Schreuder.
And in England? There are largely two approaches: hire from abroad or go with experience and, in both cases, try not to pay compensation. There is a fear that if they do not deliver a recognisable “name” to their fans, a board will face a backlash and they do not like the focus to be on them rather than the manager. Clubs are remarkably conservative.
There is another factor: Watford are bottom but not cut adrift. West Ham are 17th but just six points behind fifth-placed Wolverhampton. Everton are a point ahead of West Ham. Arsenal are eighth, eight points off fourth. There is, therefore, an element of trying to hold their nerve — hoping things get better, which is either admirable or delusional.
It appears the quartet will survive for now, but then again, no one would be surprised if a change were made at any of the four clubs soon.