Flu season ‘double whammy’
One expert questions if NZ is prepared for coronavirus outbreak
Jamie Morton science
New Zealand’s health system could face a “double whammy” if fast-spreading coronavirus 2019-nCoV hits amid the busy winter flu season, experts say.
One public health researcher questions whether the country is truly prepared to deal with an outbreak here, pointing to a recent global index that ranked New Zealand poorly for preparedness.
With around 120 tests for coronavirus coming back negative, New Zealand has so far avoided what could soon become a global pandemic.
As at this week, there had been more than 80,000 cases in 41 countries and territories — with a death toll of around 2760 — and for the first time more new ones were being reported outside China than within it.
Although it wasn’t yet clear whether coronavirus was influenced by environmental factors or spread faster over the colder months, research into previous human coronaviruses have indicated they may have annual peaks in winter.
University of Auckland vaccinologist Associate Professor Helen Petousis-Harris said an outbreak during flu season would prove a “double whammy” for under-pressure hospitals and GP clinics.
“We’re talking about the same number of healthcare professionals, and the same amount of equipment, and we may get a lot more people with severe respiratory conditions that need care.”
GP clinics across the county have reported running out of masks and other protective gear despite the Government holding on to 18 million masks.
“Maybe people who don’t normally get their flu jab might want to consider it this year, to reduce the number of cases overall,” Petousis-Harris said.
New Zealand’s flu season had been peaking around August, although last year it began months earlier and brought higher than usual rates seen in 2016 and 2018.
The Immunisation Advisory Centre said two vaccines funded for this year covered four strains including H1N1 and H3N2-like viruses.
Scientists around the world are scrambling to develop a vaccine for 2019-nCoV itself, either from scratch or with a repurposed one. More than 80 clinical trials are under way.
Professor Mick Roberts, an infectious disease modeller at Massey University, said it also wasn’t clear how quickly coronavirus could spread here.
“How the virus develops biologically in the body won’t be too different from what’s been seen in China, but the contact rates will be different, because in China you are in contact with a lot more people.”
The Ministry of Health says
New Zealand is “well prepared” and had a system for early identification and case management up and running.
The ministry’s director of public health, Dr Caroline McElnay, urged people to
phone ahead to their GP practice if they were concerned they might have the virus.
“If you have recently returned from a country or region internationally with a recent increase in cases and
have a fever, difficulty breathing or a cough it’s important you ring Healthline’s dedicated Covid-19 number first or ring your general practice before making a visit and potentially putting others at risk.”