Pompeo plans Iran deal pivot

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is preparing a legal argument that the United States remains a participant in the Iran nuclear accord that President Donald Trump has renounced, part of an intricate strategy to pressure the United Nations Security Council to extend an arms embargo on Tehran or see far more stringent sanctions reimposed on the country.

The strategy has been described in recent days by administration officials as they begin to circulate a new resolution in the Security Council that would bar countries from exporting conventional arms to Iran after the current ban expires in October. Any effort to renew the arms embargo is almost certain to be opposed by Russia and China. The Russians have already told US and European officials they want to resume arms sales to Iran.

In an effort to force the issue, Pompeo has approved a plan under which the US would, in essence, claim it legally remains a “participant state” in the nuclear accord Trump has denounced — but only for the purposes of restoring the UN sanctions on Iran that were in place before the accord.

If the arms embargo is not renewed, the US would exercise that right as an original member of the agreement. That step would force a restoration of the sanctions that prohibited oil sales and banking arrangements before the adoption of the agreement in 2015. Enforcing those older sanctions would, in theory, be binding on all UN members.

European diplomats say Trump and Pompeo are selectively choosing whether they are still in the agreement to fit their agenda.

The entire drama could play out in the weeks before the presidential election, setting up a potential confrontation with Iran in the midst of the contest.

Political calculations aside, the administration’s larger plan may be to force Tehran to give up any pretence of preserving the Obama-era agreement. Only by shattering it, many senior administration officials say, will Iran be forced to negotiate an entirely new agreement more to Trump’s liking.