Into Level 2 : Ready or not?
After Cabinet meeting today, PM will announce decision at 4pm
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her Cabinet Ministers will today reveal to New Zealand if the country is ready to move into alert level 2. Ministers meet at 10.30am for an extended Cabinet meeting to discuss the move. Just under six hours later, Ardern will front media with the decision at 4pm.
If Cabinet decides the country is ready to come out of level 3, New Zealand could move to alert level 2 as early as Wednesday.
And if level 2 is given the greenlight, one of the country’s top epidemiology experts says the Government should consider making masks on public transport compulsory. “This would give us another line of defence,” Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said.
Today’s decision is hugely significant from an economic and a health perspective.
Ministers, some in the Cabinet meeting room and others joining via video link, will weigh up advice from the Health Ministry and other key agencies before making the final call.
It comes after New Zealand effectively ground to a halt almost six weeks ago when the country went into lockdown at alert level 4.
The economic impact of the lockdown has been stark — recently released Treasury documents reveal officials expect 300,000 people to be out of work in September.
Businesses, the Opposition and even Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters have all lobbied for the Government to move as fast as possible into the less restrictive level 2.
National leader Simon Bridges said tens of thousands of jobs have already been lost.
“This has gone on too long. It’s time to put more trust in everyday New Zealanders and get working again.”
But Ardern has been clear — New Zealand would only move to level 2 when it was safe.
“We think of ourselves as halfway down Everest. I think it is clear that no one wants to hike back up that peak,” she said last week.
From a health perspective, director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield has always said his advice would be based on a sustained period of low new cases, low to no community transmission and an ironclad understanding of where each case came from.
He told the Herald last week a number of cases had an unclear source, but officials were investigating.
Bloomfield will brief ministers today on his recommendation.
This comes after a week of consistently low new cases of Covid-19.
There were just 11 new cases in the past seven days. For two days there were no new cases.
Yesterday, there were just two new cases and no further Covid-19 related deaths. The Ministry of Health also revealed that 92 per cent of all Covid-19 cases have now recovered.
One option for Ardern and her Cabinet is the phasing into level 2, which she has spoken about publicly.
“Moving into level 2 is a large step, we would rather start that journey than wait back in level 3 longer than we need to, but it may be that we get advice that the higher risk elements of level 2 may need a little more time,” she said last week.
This would be a similar approach to that of the Australian Government — Ardern and Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison have been sharing notes as both countries battle the pandemic.
Otago University’s
Michael Baker supported this approach. “Thinking logically, you might begin with the most controlled environments, like workplaces and schools, where risk can be minimised.” Then, once officials are sure level 2 was showing signs of success, the Government could loosen restrictions on places like bars and nightclubs, he said.
But he said Cabinet has a “tough balancing act” to consider when making its decision today.
It needed to weigh up public health against the potential economic impact of extending level 3, he added.
“In many ways [from a health perspective], levels 3 and 4 were easy — people had to stay home unless they had a good reason.”
But going to level 2 would be a big jump, given social restrictions would be loosened considerably, compared to the other alert levels, he said.
Levels 3 and 4 were more tightly policed, with specific requirements and restrictions; “level 2 relies on people’s individual judgment”.
In level 2, shops will open, people can go to bars and cafes, domestic travel is allowed and people will again be allowed to gather at events of fewer than 100 people.
Baker said this is where the risk of a second wave is most pronounced, which was why he believed people should have to wear masks on public transport and planes.