Year of reckoning for changes to test rugby
In the first of a three-part series on rugby’s future, Liam Napier looks at the game at test level
Test rugby’s landscape will never be the same. From competition restructuring to private investment and the re-tabling of the Nations Championship concept, the platforms for change are here.
Evolution of international structures won’t happen overnight but rugby insiders canvassed by the Herald said that one way or another it will happen, even if that means New Zealand Rugby “going rogue”.
With all international unions in survival mode, rugby’s year of reckoning has arrived.
As Covid-19 blocks borders an immediate localised focus takes hold, leaving the All Blacks facing just the Wallabies.
From a funding perspective, the rapid decline in All Blacks tests is the primary reason New Zealand Rugby is forecasting a 70 per cent drop in revenue this year and laying off half its staff. Last year, a season in which the All Blacks played five tests outside the World Cup and therefore received $20 million in compensation from World Rugby, NZ Rugby lost $7.4m. This year that figure is expected to swell to tens of millions.
The All Blacks are the cash cow that drives revenue which then filters through all levels of the New Zealand game. They are NZR’s global marketing tool, chief sponsorship driver and broadcast revenue generator. It is simple mathematics: without the ABs playing 14 tests a year, the squeeze comes on.
For all New Zealand franchises, provinces and clubs that squeeze will feel more like a noose. Scheduled tests against Wales (twice) and Scotland in July will be postponed with no guarantees those assignments will be played this year.
Six scheduled Rugby Championship tests against South Africa, Argentina and Australia due to kick off from August 18 are, likewise, in serious doubt. Even a touted Rugby Championship bubble based out of Perth seems far-fetched, with the Springboks and Pumas needing exemptions to travel.
The logistical complexities of those destinations weigh heavily on the future of the Sanzaar alliance, too. The massive disruption to the travel and airline industries could make transporting teams from New Zealand to South America not feasible in the medium term. South Africa and Argentina are, therefore, understood to be in discussions about forming their own rugby bubble.
Faint hope for test rugby’s return extends to this year’s traditional northern tour in which the All Blacks were expected to make a moneymaking venture to Tokyo en route to London, Edinburgh and Cardiff.
The global pandemic will improve, and the United Kingdom says it will start reopening for sport next month, but, realistically, the All Blacks are likely to only play the Wallabies in 2020. Yet even a series against Dave Rennie’s Wallabies will represent a drop in the financial ocean compared with that of a traditional schedule.
Perspective on the All Blacks’ influence on NZ Rugby’s funding is evident in that one “add on” test each year — those outside the three allocated November internationals — generates around $1.5m in profit.
As border restrictions remain, this year’s Japanese venture will be the first match axed, stripping that valued oneoff earner. With NZ Rugby’s six scheduled home tests this year, all of which usually sell out, likely to be reduced to two, the source of the projected $120m revenue hole becomes evident. Outside gate takings, the lack of exposure for global sponsors and the decline in content for broadcasters also hits balance sheets hard. Desperation to rapidly regain revenue offers the motivation to shake up test rugby’s landscape. In the immediate aftermath of his victory over Agustin Pichot, newlyelected World Rugby chairman Bill Beaumont outlined his blueprint for a long-coveted aligned global season. This centres on shifting the Southern Hemisphere-hosted July test window to October, and pushing through the 12-team Nations Championship concept the Six Nations vetoed when it was first proposed last year. The ideas are intertwined. Moving the July window to October would allow test rugby to run backto-back rather than being interrupted by the Northern Hemisphere club competitions.
In theory, the Rugby Championship would retain its same AugustSeptember time slot; likewise the Six Nations in February-March, although discussions are ongoing about whether these windows could be better aligned, too. Crucially this plan leaves July open for a potential world club championship recently tabled by French Rugby president Bernard Laporte, who as Beaumont’s vicechairman, is said to be the most influential man at rugby’s top table — a not altogether welcome prospect in the south. The Rugby
Championship and Six Nations would stand alone but each test within those tournaments and crosshemisphere clash thereafter would award points to the winners on the path towards a proposed test rugby final.
Test rugby’s model is particularly frustrating for the All Blacks who command such appeal that they could sell out Twickenham four times over during each west London visit. And yet while Twickenham tests gross in excess of $29m, NZ Rugby receives next to nothing from these matches.
As Covid-19 threatens to send unions under, it is hoped the $6.6 billion in private investment over the first 12 years of the proposed Nations Championship will remain on the table and, this time, be enough of a lure to get the Six Nations to agree to promotion-relegation.
Not everyone supports the Nations Championship proposal, however. Concerns persist about it devaluing the World Cup. From a New Zealand and indeed Sanzaar perspective, though, the concept would represent a major victory.
A new World Rugby-governed tournament, backed by significant private investment, would force the north to negotiate revenue-sharing models that, to this point, they have refused to engage on. Equally shared profits, and the prospect of revenue incentives based on finishing positions, could lift the southern nations off life support.
If Beaumont can’t deliver on his promise for change, NZ Rugby and the Sanzaar partners are considering taking matters into their own hands in what has been described as a “Kerry Packer moment”. This path could involve major unions negotiating test tours without World Rugby. As NZR chairman Brent Impey said this week, the All Blacks are not “beholden to the north”.