How ready is NZ for the second wave?
Health experts fear mutation of virus or second wave of cases; make preparations
New Zealand remains on track to stamp out Covid-19 but a second wave of the deadly virus can’t be ruled out and health experts fear we may not be ready.
It comes as the country has just 45 active cases of Covid-19, with no new cases reported yesterday. Of the country’s 1499 total cases, 96 per cent have now recovered.
While hospitals have started ramping up all services that were put on hold during lockdown, Sarah Dalton, chief executive of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, said there was still a long list of unmet needs.
Dalton hinted that we may be in trouble if we were to see a second wave or new variant of the virus.
“While New Zealand has done well to dodge a bullet, the same issues still apply.
“We have a lot of hospital buildings that are not well able to cope. We are still broadly understaffed and so we have a lot of older staff who are at higher risk in terms of comorbidities and how effective they would be if they did become sick and likelihood of recovery.”
Dalton said staying focused on improving our health services was more important for New Zealand than ever.
“We are still seeing DHBs putting in business cases for big hospital rebuilds that are being capped in ways that mean if they go ahead, we are going to have a building that is really expensive and not fit for purpose.”
She said now was the time for politicians and DHB bosses to be working with clinical leadership teams, and while that was happening in some areas, there was more work to be done in order for it to become a normality.
New Zealand’s risk of getting a second wave of Covid-19 was present but was much lower than other countries, Dr Ayesha Verrall of the University of Otago told the Herald.
Last week, World Health Organisation (WHO) officials delivered a stark warning to countries beginning to ease their lockdown restrictions, saying now was the “time for preparation, not celebration”.
Dr Hans Kluge, director for the WHO European region, said countries should use this time wisely and start to strengthen public health systems as well as building capacity in hospitals, primary care and intensive care units.
When the Spanish flu first emerged in March 1918, it had the hallmarks of the typical seasonal illness but it then came back in an even more virulent and deadly form in the autumn, eventually killing an estimated 50 million people.
Verrall said New Zealand’s risk of a second and more deadly wave was much lower than that of European countries because we have had no evidence of community transmission.
“What we are at risk of is a new intrusion through our border if there are any gaps in our control or a problem with our contact isolation,” she said.
“The risk that people haven’t been identified in the community is just getting lower and lower.”
Verrall said now it was about “check, check and double-check” and ensuring we had a long-term plan for testing and contact tracing.
The Ministry of Health said it is not “relaxing its guard” and that 408 more ventilators have been ordered from overseas, due to arrive in the next six months.