Moving to level 1

Sir David Skegg characterises those advocating moving quickly to level 1 as “ignorant”, that “abundant evidence from overseas” warns against it. This opinion, however, is from an epidemiologist, a doctor who tries to derive medical truths from mathematical models, but who does not practice in real world medicine. Epidemiological models are inherently inaccurate as biological systems are excessively complex. The modelling published by the MOH early in the pandemic illustrates this well: although performing reasonably during March and April in predicting case numbers, it also predicted a long tail of cases over several months, which patently has not occurred. This model, therefore, fails completely in its ability to inform when to reduce restrictions. In terms of evidence from overseas, there is none — no other country with completely sealed borders has yet eliminated the virus. Real world data shows most of NZ eliminated the virus more than a month ago, and one single cluster in Auckland ceased slightly more recently. Real world data tells us we should be in level 1 now.

Dr Rees Cameron, Upper Hutt.

Fran O’Sullivan has joined with Winston Peters in saying we should move to level 1 immediately. Peters’ motives seem politically based so why is O’Sullivan arguing for this too? We have gone with the medical and scientific advice so far and this has worked. Let us remember that the virus has a demonstrated long tail.

Peter Pascoe, Tauranga.

Fran O’Sullivan has hit the nail on the head by noting the Prime Minister is proving “wilfully deaf” to the message that it is time to get New Zealand fully back to business. We are teetering on the precip f an economic and social disaster. Wage subsidies and other government life support are holding the economy in a state of animated suspension but they are not sustainable. By refusing to move to level 1 now Jacinda Ardern has her head in the sand. Ms Arden needs to heed the call from business leaders batting on the front line to keep the economy afloat and take decisive action to move to level 1 without further delay.

William Black, Remuera.