Virus is now a ‘wild cat rather than a tiger’ and could die out: expert

The Covid-19 coronavirus has downgraded from a “tiger to a wild cat” and could die out on its own without a vaccine, an infectious diseases specialist has claimed.

Prof Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the Policlinico San Martino hospital in Italy, told the Sunday Telegraph that Covid-19 has been losing its virulence in the past month and patients who would have previously died are now recovering. The expert in critical care said the plummeting number of cases could mean a vaccine is no longer needed as the virus might never return.

His comments come after Matt Hancock, the UK Health Secretary, announced on Thursday that a deal had been struck between pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca and Oxford University to begin the manufacture of a potential vaccine.

“The clinical impression I have is that the virus is changing in severity,” said Prof Bassetti. “In March and early April the patterns were completely different. People were coming to the emergency department with a very difficult to manage illness and they needed oxygen and ventilation; some developed pneumonia.

“Now, in the past four weeks, the picture has completely changed. There could be a lower viral load in the respiratory tract, probably due to a genetic mutation in the virus which has not yet been demonstrated scientifically. Also we are now more aware of the disease and able to manage it. It was like an aggressive tiger in March and April but now it’s like a wild cat.

“Even patients aged 80 or 90 are now sitting up in bed and breathing without help. The same patients would have died in two or three days

Yes, probably it could go away completely without a vaccine. Prof Matteo Bassetti

before. I think the virus has mutated because our immune system reacts to the virus and we have a lower viral load now due to the lockdown, maskwearing, social distancing. We still have to demonstrate why it’s different now.

“Yes, probably it could go away completely without a vaccine. We have fewer and fewer people infected and it could end up with the virus dying out.”

Prof Karol Sikora, an oncologist and chief medical officer at Rutherford Health, previously said it is likely the British public has more immunity than previously thought and Covid-19 could end up “petering out by itself”.

However, Dr Bharat Pankhania, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School, said the idea that Covid-19 would die out is “optimistic in the short term”. He added: “I don’t expect it to die out that quickly. It will if it has no one to infect. If we have a successful vaccine then we’ll be able to do what we did with smallpox.

“But because it’s so infectious and widespread, it won’t go away for a very long time.

“My estimate is ranging from never to if we are really lucky and it sort of mutates and mutates, it may lose its virulence — we’re talking years and years. I disagree with Prof Sikora that nirvana is around the corner.”

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson is poised to announce a new “one metre plus” rule for all venues, including shops, restaurants, schools, offices, factories and parks, in an overhaul designed to unlock swathes of the economy.

The change, which would take effect from July 4, is understood to entail allowing people to remain a metre away from others if they take additional measures to protect themselves, such as wearing a mask.

In restaurants, pubs and bars, firms will be expected to introduce measures such as partitions between tables that are less than 2 metres apart.

The Prime Minister is believed to be preparing to make an announcement on Tuesday. Officials are understood to have concluded that observing one metre with appropriate “mitigations” would equate, in terms of public safety, to two-metre distancing without any such measures.