Moving the needle
Vaccine hopes could push interest rates up sooner
It’s been the airlines, the banks the hotels, energy companies — companies that were trashed for months that have bounced very hard and that’s what’s driven the trade.
Mike Taylor, chief executive, Pie Funds
In November global sharemarkets saw some of their biggest monthly surges since 1987 as vaccine optimism took hold.
Wall Street’s Dow Jones Index was up about 12 per cent in November, putting it on track for its biggest monthly gain since 1987.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 10.8 per cent and 11.8 per cent, respectively.
“The market is up, some European markets over 20 per cent. Global equities are up about 14 per cent,” says Pie Funds chief executive Mike Taylor.
“So a huge month, a record. And the reason for that is we’ve got three companies now with vaccines that look like they’ve got good efficacy.”
After Covid lockdown induced a surge in tech stocks, markets were now up on “rotation trade”, he said.
“Some of the Covid winners, tech stocks and eCommerce stocks, haven’t done so well through November,” Taylor said.
“It’s been the airlines, the banks the hotels, energy companies — companies that were trashed for months that have bounced very hard and that’s what’s driven the trade.”
People that were brave about those stocks have done pretty well in the past month, he said.
Economically things have continued to be “better than expected” across the board in New Zealand.
The vaccine news has only added to that trend.
That was being seen in the current house price boom, Taylor said.
“Globally everyone was very pessimistic in March. It was the unknown, the fear of what could possibly happen.
“Once we got some certainty around what the virus looked like, could we get a vaccine, then people became more comfortable.”
On top of that there were some very stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies. “There wasn’t much choice at the time,” Taylor said.
“Certainly you might start to ask the question next year: do we need as much stimulus as we’ve got.”
There was a risk that if the global recovery really got into high gear next year inflation could start to emerge and rates might rise.
“I think the biggest risk for property markets and equity markets is: how long can central banks hold rates at zero?”
“With asset price inflation running as it is, they might have said two months ago that they’d keep rates at zero for two years.
“But I’m not sure that is still the correct move.
“They’ll just have to be very careful because we’ve all seen how asset bubbles can get pricked if you raise rates too quickly.”