Luck only way killer could have been nailed

The most simple finding by the Royal Commission into the March 15 massacre would have been to identify a major failing by a single organisation that would otherwise have prevented the white supremacist’s murder of 51 people.

If the commission had come even close to that, a resignation by a chief executive or a minister — or both — might have been demanded. It might have been seen as a simple and swift means of getting accountability.

But the commission has done its job exceptionally well to explain context rather than relying on simple answers.

Any suggestion the security agencies keep a close watch on the population, and should have picked up suspect activity, is dispelled.

“The idea that intelligence and security agencies engage in mass surveillance of New Zealanders is myth,” it said.

It not only finds that there is no single agency to blame, but that had successive Parliaments addressed lax regulation of semi-automatic firearms earlier, it might have prevented the attack in March 2019.

It says that given the way the terrorist operated, the legal restraints of the security agencies and the capacity of counter-terrorism within the agencies “there was no plausible way he could have been detected except by chance”.

It does say that with the benefit of hindsight, a counter-terrorism strategy that encouraged the public to come forward with concerns might have been the best way to detect or disrupt him.

But one reason such strategies had not been adopted had been to avoid stigmatising Muslim communities further.

The Security Intelligence Service would have been most vulnerable to a finding of culpability. And while the commission finds there was a disproportionate emphasis on potential Islamic threats, the attack occurred in the midst of a reform period for the agency in terms of resources and focus under the leadership of Rebecca Kitteridge.

The concentration on Islamist extremist terrorism was not to the exclusion of following leads on possible right-wing extremist terrorism when they arose.

Another reason is the deep suspicion between the security agencies and the public — a lack of trust Opposition politicians encouraged in the past 10 years when suggesting they engaged in, or were planning to engage in, mass surveillance. Again, politicians should accept some responsibility in this.

Apologies have been made by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Police Commissioner Andrew Coster and Security Intelligence Service directorgeneral Rebecca Kitteridge, and a commitment given to accept all 44 of the report’s recommendations.

The hard work begins now.