Govt told better contact tracing cheaper than lockdown

Before the Government pumped another $3 billion into the Covid-19 response it was told it would be much cheaper to beef-up contact tracing than force another lockdown.

The funding was announced last week as a review of the August Auckland outbreak was released. It found that found the number of cases which could be traced fell well short of the promised 1000 per day and that statements made at the daily 1pm press conferences undermined the work on the ground.

Sir Brian Roche and Professor Philip Hill, co-chairs of the Covid-19 Surveillance and Testing Strategy advisory group which prepared the report, told Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins the system’s capacity and financial stability need to be “urgently addressed” with a 24-36 month timeframe in mind.

The pair were tasked with reviewing contact tracing during the August Auckland cluster.

Overall the testing and contact tracing system delivered a timely and informed response which was actively learning and improving, they said. “The Auckland outbreak put significant pressure on the system and it is a credit to all those involved that a successful outcome was achieved. New Zealanders can have high confidence that Covid outbreaks can and will be controlled.”

Roche and Hill did not find new issues in the system but that there was a continued need for “all important” stress testing, clarity of accountabilities, a fit-for-purpose structure and a whole-system approach.

Before the Auckland outbreak hit it was believed contacts of 1000 cases could be traced a day with Auckland Regional Public Health (ARPH) expected to trace 120 of that number.

But the cluster was far more complex than the first outbreak in April because it largely affected the Pacific community who closely interact with their community. Because of the resources required to trace contacts in reality ARPH could only handle 20 contacts per day with a surge capacity of up to 80 a day. Though this was never tested as the daily case numbers were always less than 20 in the Auckland outbreak. Overall it appeared the overall capacity across the entire system was “perhaps even less” than 200 per day. ARPH told Roche and Hill it couldn’t get to surge numbers quickly enough because staff had to be deployed from other areas in the local health system. But the main issue was “the disconnect” between the Government and the public expecting 1000 cases a day to be traced and the system not being able to deliver that. The report said ARPH’s budget was about $24 million including a $7m one-off Covid cash injection, but even a short lockdown in Auckland potentially cost billions. Economists at the time estimated it to cost $440m a week. A beefed-up contact tracing system could avoid the need for a lockdown to blunt the rapid escalation of an outbreak, depending on the circumstances. The report landed on Hipkins’ desk on November 30 and on December 2 Cabinet agreed to pump an extra $225m into supporting health boards to respond to Covid-19.

The funding was included in the $2.8 billion package announced to keep the Covid-19 border controls and 14-day isolation facilities going until at least June 2022.