‘Covid variant will dominate’
The new Covid-19 variant that first emerged in Britain is set to become more prevalent across the world due to its more transmissible nature, an epidemiologist says.
Six cases of the recently identified UK variant have been found in New Zealand’s managed isolation facilities over the past four days.
Professor Michael Baker said the new strain was always going to make its way here.
“It was inevitable — because once it becomes a dominant strain, like it has in the UK, people coming here will obviously bring it with them.
“This new variant will become dominant all over the world over the next couple of weeks and months because it’s more infectious.”
He said if there was community transmission with the new strain here it would be harder to control.
“We’ve seen figures that it is up to 50 to 70 per cent more infectious,” he said.
“We really want to avoid going into a lockdown but that could easily happen if an outbreak happens with the new variant.”
On Sunday the Government announced that from January 15 people travelling to New Zealand from the United States and Britain will need to show they’ve tested negative less than 72 hours before departing.
But many travellers were already taking pre-flight coronavirus tests as a requirement for some transit countries, Baker said.
The only main route from Britain to New Zealand which doesn’t require a pre-departure test at present is through Doha, Qatar.
New Zealanders in the UK are not allowed to transit through Japan, China or Hong Kong, and need a negative test before transiting through Singapore.
Baker said the new requirement was an inevitable shift in policy.
“Almost all airline routes into New Zealand require testing before you travel through them so I’m not sure if this new requirement will change much for people trying to travel here,” he said.
“We have several hundreds of people travelling here each day and lots are coming from countries where the pandemic is out of control and it might get more intense over the next couple of weeks.”
He said it made sense for the Government to constantly review standards at the border.
“Every time an infected person gets on a plane they can infect others on the flight [and] staff at MIQ facilities. We have had border failures and they are driven by the number of infected people arriving here, so the more we can turn down that tap the better for New Zealand.”
However, testing did not always pick up people in the early stages of infection, so positive cases could still arrive at the border, Baker said.
If you have symptoms of the coronavirus, call the NZ Covid-19 Healthline on 0800 358 5453 or your GP — don’t show up at a medical centre.