Has our luck run out with Covid?

In the trench warfare of battling Covid-19, this week marks a step forward as New Zealand begins its vaccine rollout for 5 to 11-year-olds. This latest attempt to further shore up the country’s defences gives an extra 476,000 young Kiwis the chance to have some vaccine protection.

Yesterday was also the deadline for fire and emergency worker and police jab mandates.

However, the country’s attempts to keep the Omicron variant out have taken a hit with the case of an MIQ worker who tested positive.

It will take time to work out if this incident can be ring-fenced, but as epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said, we are on “borrowed time”.

As of Friday there had been 266 Omicron cases detected at the border out of about 18,000 people sent through MIQ since the start of December.

A glance at the Herald vaccination tracker shows both positives and challenges. There is solid protection built up against hospitalisation and death from Covid, with close to 93 per cent of the eligible population having had at least two shots.

Yet only about 18.7 per cent have had a third shot or booster. Boosters restore waning immunity if people’s second dose was several months ago, and are added security against severe outcomes.

Demand for boosters has been solid — with 40,880 recorded on Saturday and 22,149 on Sunday — and about 742,000 given so far.

That’s not a fast enough rate considering Omicron could cause disruption and health impacts here very quickly, at any time. We may have high rates of vaccination, but we also have low rates of immunity acquired from previous coronavirus infections compared to other countries.

The booster campaign here is at least helped by its quicker, more accessible approach compared to last year’s general rollout. Being able to walk into a nearby pharmacy, show a vaccine pass and quickly get the shot administered is a major improvement on the document-checking, cards, and waits at vaccination centres.

Aside from the situation with boosters, there are other concerns about the country’s readiness if Omicron strikes soon. Reports in the past few days have said that some health providers will be using this week to build towards full capacity for the paediatric dose rollout, and that more than 200 police officers are yet to get a first vaccine.

Mask use in New Zealand is generally behind the times. Other countries have pushed for the wearing of certified N95 and KN95 grade masks to protect against Omicron. Countries overseas have struggled with not enough rapid Covid tests available and essential workers getting sick.

That has hit supply chains and areas of normal life from supermarket goods to rubbish collections.

There are at least signs some countries are now seeing falling case numbers. New Zealand could yet sneak through its paediatric and booster rollouts without a major outbreak while the surge overseas subsides. Or we may find our luck has now run out.

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