Diplomats: Be ready for Trump to quit Nato
European nations must be ready if a future President Donald Trump pulls the United States out of Nato, foreign diplomats have told the Telegraph.
Diplomats from countries with Nato membership said that European capitals needed to “do the planning” and reconsider current defence capabilities in light of threats issued by the former US President.
Last week, Trump was all but confirmed as the Republican candidate for the presidential election in November when Nikki Haley withdrew from the contest for the Republican nomination.
The prospect of his possible return to the White House has sparked concerns in Europe about American support for Ukraine as well as the country’s commitment to Nato.
Trump has previously said he would “encourage” Russia to attack Nato members that fail to pay their “bills”, while his former national security adviser John Bolton has predicted he would attempt to withdraw from the alliance if re-elected.
Last month, the Telegraph revealed that the British Government does not have a contingency plan for such a scenario. However, there is a dawning realisation in other capitals that such preparations have to be made.
One European diplomat said that Trump’s comments were “of course” a “concern”. “Nobody knows what he’s going to do next,” the source said.
The official said that Nato countries needed to “do the planning” for a scenario in which he weakened the American commitment to the alliance. “Preparations need to be in place.”
However, the source pointed out that the number of countries meeting the Nato target to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence had risen significantly, meaning that members could tell Trump “he’s getting what he wanted”.
A diplomat from another Nato country said that Trump’s comments had thrown into sharp relief “that we are so overdependent on the US”. The diplomat said that a “discussion” about how to hedge against the risk of US withdrawal was “necessary”. Countries such as the UK would need to provide even greater leadership on European security because “if the US pulls out there will be a massive gap”.
A third diplomat said that uncertainty about the US would make European countries “think in our own capitals more about the defence planning — is it adequate or not?”.
British ministers have insisted that Nato has become stronger in the past year, with the accession of Finland in April 2023 and Sweden last week. However, Lord Darroch, a former UK ambassador to the US, says the Government needs to be prepared for all eventualities if Trump is re-elected.
Writing for Prospect, the former UK national security adviser said: “If I were an official in any prime minister’s office around Europe, I would be commissioning the experts in government to start doing some contingency thinking about how a Nato without the US would look and function — just in case.”