Kyiv will be ‘outgunned’ without US aid

The top general for United States forces in Europe told Congress yesterday that Ukraine will be outgunned 10 to one by Russia within a matter of weeks if Congress does not approve sending more ammunition and weapons to Kyiv soon.

The testimony from Army General Christopher Cavoli, head of US European Command, and Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defence for international security affairs, comes as Congress enters pivotal weeks for voting for Ukraine aid, but there’s no guarantee funding will be improved in time.

Ukraine has been rationing its munitions as Congress has delayed passing its US$60 billion ($100b) supplemental bill.

“They are now being outshot by the Russian side five to one. So the Russians fire five times as many artillery shells at the Ukrainians than the Ukrainians are able to fire back. That will immediately go to 10 to one in a matter of weeks,” Cavoli said. “We’re not talking about months.

We’re not talking hypothetically.”

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has been trying to find a way forward for the bill that would fund new rounds of munitions production at US firms to enable the Pentagon to then rush more munitions to Ukraine. Johnson is trying to bring it to the floor for a House vote, but he is facing concerns from members who cite domestic needs, including border security. He is also facing a threat to his leadership by Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene who has called for his ouster over the issue.

In Ukraine, the dire battlefield situation worsens.

Cavoli said that the US flow of 155mm artillery shells has been a lifeline. “The biggest killer on the battlefield is artillery. In most conflicts, but in this one definitely. And should Ukraine run out, they would run out because we stopped supplying — because we supply the lion’s share of that.”

Russia’s own production of missiles has been ramped up and Moscow can launch large-scale attacks every few days. If Ukraine’s air defence stocks run out, “those attacks would absolutely cripple the economy, and the civil society as well as the military of Ukraine if they were not defended against without a US provision of interceptors”, Cavoli said. “Their ability to defend their terrain that they currently hold and their airspace would fade rapidly, will fade rapidly without the supplemental.”

US Army leaders offered similar dire warnings to the House Defence Appropriations Subcommittee of risks for both Ukraine and the US Army. “The side that can’t shoot back, loses,” said Army Secretary Christine Wormuth. “I think there is a real danger . . . that the Russians could have a breakthrough somewhere in the line.”

If Kyiv falls, it could imperil Ukraine’s Baltic Nato member neighbours and potentially drag US troops into a prolonged European war.