Be cautious but don't panic

Epidemiology experts don’t expect another Covid lockdown

We all need to do our bit to avoid [another lockdown]: keep scanning, and get a test but then stay home if you have any of the symptoms or think you might you may have had contact with this case.

rofessor Shaun Hendy, from the University of Auckland, and Associate Professor Siouxsie Wiles, from the same university’s School of Biological Sciences, responded in similar fashion to news that a 56-year-old Northland woman had tested positive for Covid-19.

Professor Hendy said Northlanders should pay attention to any potential symptoms, and if they are feeling unwell, should seek a test and avoid going to work. That advice applied to all New Zealanders, but was particularly important when there had been a case in the community.

“While this new case is concerning, it is not the same situation that we faced in Auckland in August, when the first cases couldn’t be linked to the border,” he said, however.

“With what we know at the moment, that the person has had only four close contacts [two of whom were reported yesterday as having tested negative], it is unlikely that we will need another lockdown. But we all need to do our bit to avoid this: keep scanning, and get a test but then stay home if you have any of the symptoms or think you might you may have had contact with this case.”

It was possible, he added, that the woman had had a very long incubation period, which was rare but not unheard of.

Wiles was also cautioning against any urge to panic.

“I’m sure many people will be alarmed by the announcement of a probable case of Covid-19 in the community, but it’s important to remember we’ve had cases like this before, and that we have stopped them without needing to move up the alert levels,” she said.

“This latest case is someone who has tested positive after recently arriving in New Zealand from Europe. It is highly unlikely they caught the infection in the community. The likely explanation is that they were infected in Europe or while they were in transit to New Zealand. They may also have been infected during their stay in MIQ.”

Hopefully the genome sequencing will tell us more.

“If the person was infected in MIQ, then understanding how that happened will help to determine if any procedures need to be improved.

“We know that people are infectious for a few days before symptoms develop, and for the first few days of having symptoms, so it is almost certain that the person was infectious while they were out in the community,” she added.

“The contact tracing team will be working hard to identify anyone who is likely to have been exposed and is at risk of having picked up the virus. I am reassured that they will be casting their net wide, and treating this as though it is one of the more infectious variants of the virus.”

Meanwhile, everyone should be doing everything they could to make the contact tracing team’s job easier.

“We can do that by making a habit of using the Covid Tracer App and having Bluetooth turned on,” she said.

“Can you remember everywhere you have been over the last 10 days, and when? I know I can’t, which is why I’ve got myself trained to use the app wherever I go.

“So remember: Stop, Look, Scan, Smile. When you enter a building, stop and take a moment to look for a QR code. Open the app and scan. Then think of all the contact tracers cheering you on for doing your bit.

“I’d like to see all businesses helping to make QR code scanning easier by reminding people to scan as they pay for goods and services, and putting the QR codes up in lots of different places around their premises, rather than hidden by the entrance.

“This is a habit we will need for the next year, so let’s develop it now rather than just scanning when we hear of a case outside of MIQ.”

Professor Shaun Hendy University of Auckland