Waiting for climate change action

NEW ZEALAND has no intention of stepping up the fight against global warming until the rest of the world shows signs of following suit, Climate Change Minister Tim Groser says.

He freely admits that New Zealand, like other countries, has bought its way out of its greenhouse gas obligations to date by taking advantage of cheap international carbon credits.

‘‘Guilty as charged,’’ Groser said.

‘‘The only thing is, that’s what the international community agreed on.’’

Like those calling for increased action by governments, he said international agreements amounted to far less than the environment needed.

‘‘Unquestionably, the world is not doing enough . . . However, mitigation makes sense by New Zealand only in terms of a global effort.’’

Groser is facing a big year in his portfolio. He will soon convey to the United Nations a national target for the country’s greenhouse gas goals from 2021 to 2030. And a review of the emission trading scheme (ETS), which has been called ‘‘limp’’ and ‘‘gutted’’, will be completed this year.

In December, he will travel to Paris with other international delegates to make those goals official. As they may not be finalised until mid-year, he would not comment on what levels they might be.

‘‘I don’t want to get ahead of the political debate.’’

In 15 years’ time, New Zealand is projected to pump out a third more carbon emissions than it did in 1990.

Meanwhile, organisations such as the World Bank warn that, unless people start decreasing carbon emissions now, there will be more superstorms, droughts, freshwater crises, and coastal cities such as Christchurch and Wellington will be inundated by rising oceans.

But Groser said the future was ‘‘not hopeless’’ – technological advances were the key to avoiding catastrophic global warming.

‘‘Unless you really believe you can persuade people to go back into the caves – which I don’t believe for a minute is within the bounds of realism.’’

He conceded New Zealand’s fast-growing transport emissions were concerning and said reductions could come from getting fleets of electric vehicles on the road and into the secondhand market.

But will the Government put its money where its mouth is?

‘‘We’re not going to start forking out massive subsidies. We are engaged in intensive discussions with ministries, and a number of companies and Business NZ to get more grunt behind this.’’

He said there were two areas where the Government was prepared to spend money: Research – where more than $170 million had been committed to date – and adaptation.

‘‘New Zealanders are going to have to invest significant amounts of money in infrastructure that’s more climate change-resilient. Dealing with the fallout should not be seen as some sort of copout.’’

Groser had little confidence in Treasury calculations that the country faced a bill of between $3 billion and $52b if the plan was again to buy international carbon credits to meet our emissions obligations to 2030.

Cheap international credits Do you have any of the technologies you’ve talked about – like solar panels? ‘‘No, but I’m in the middle of designing a house in which I’ve asked the architect to look into exactly that. The technology when my house was built wasn’t at a mature enough stage. But I have heat pumps, which may be more efficient in terms of New Zealand conditions.’’ How about an electric or hybrid vehicle? ‘‘No, but I’ve got a diesel that is unbelievably efficient. And definitely, when I look at purchasing a private vehicle for myself, I’ll look at it.’’ were expected to be history by then, he said. They were being phased out of the ETS this year, which meant the price of carbon here would rise sharply. ‘‘The ETS will start to nibble.’’ The low price of carbon credits at present has allowed countries such as New Zealand, Denmark and Spain to buy their way out of their international greenhouse gas obligations to date.

It was far cheaper short-term for governments to buy an international carbon credit – in December last year each cost NZD$0.03 – than to not buy up credits to offset gas emissions, rather than reducing those emissions by investing in schemes such as new wind farms, or encouraging the sale of electric vehicles.

The Ministry for the Environment has said at present the ETS settings ‘‘are not driving meaningful emissions reductions’’.

The Government has long said that, if low greenhouse-gas farming technologies were available, it would consider including sheep, beef and deer farming, currently exempt from paying credits, into the ETS. The last review recommended this happen in 2015.

Groser said that, although he saw research into such technologies progressing well, a change depended on international climate change efforts increasing.

‘‘It could indeed be a quite rational policy, but you’d still have to reflect on what your competitors are doing.’’