Winners and losers in post-election year
THE 12 months since the election have flown by. Or have they? It depends on who you ask. National must feel like time is faster than a bullet as the clock ticks down on its third term in power with much still to be done.
Likewise, the quietly desperate ranks of its first, second and even third-term MPs, worried that time may be running out on their Cabinet ambitions.
But those MPs are at least in touching distance of power. Labour’s misery is far more acute. National has endured more downs than ups since the bunting was packed away after the September 20 election – the economy is headed for a rough patch, dairying is in a slump, pet projects like private prisons and charter schools have done the Government no favours, and the Northland by-election was an unlikely debacle. There have even been scandals.
But Labour has failed to profit. Most voters can’t yet see past Labour’s bloody in-fighting and post-election leadership spill to visualise the party as electable or a government in waiting.
So, 12 months on from the 2014 election, the first year of National’s third term ends pretty much as it started – with the governing party on top in the polls and the rest in the doldrums, with the notable exception of resurrection man Winston Peters.
So who else is up and who’s down after the past year?
John Key. disunity that plagued Labour during the previous six years. But it was Little’s assurance and self-belief that carried him over the line. Voters need to see more of that – and Little also needs to get on with rejuvenating the party. Appointing Jacinda Ardern as his deputy would be a good start. Political pragmatism. Remember when a political backdown was a sign of weakness? These days they call it pragmatism and wear it as a badge of honour. Helen Clark was the first to perfect the art of sniffing the winds of public opinion and shifting her position to suit, and Key is a virtuoso. Whether it’s the Auckland housing crisis, Syrian refugees, worm farming or foreign investors, Key can change his mind quicker than you can say flip-flop. It’s why a fourth term is looking less and less improbable. Regional New Zealand. If National’s first and second terms were all about Auckland and Christchurch, its third term is when regional New Zealand bit back. The Northland by-election was the fright National needed to realise that provincial New Zealand was feeling left behind by the so-called economic boom.
Winston Peters. It’s a long time since anybody was brave enough to write Peters off and the Northland by-election proved why he is such a danger to his opponents. His reincarnation as the voice of the forgotten provinces has NZ First nipping at the Greens’ heels for pole position among the minor parties heading into the next election. coming, least of all John Key and Bill English, who scared people off voting for Labour by warning that its reckless economic management would eat up the surplus, force unemployment up, and stall growth. Oh, wait . . . The Greens. They lost their mojo after the election and are still struggling to get it back. Co-leader Russel Norman’s decision to step aside was indicative of the wider angst within the party at an election result that fell far short of their expectations. David Cunliffe. Even former Cunliffe loyalists threw in the towel after the bloody and divisive row that erupted over his bid to retain the leadership following Labour’s election drubbing. He might be a master of the political comeback, but Cunliffe must know his political ambitions have been delivered their last rites. Australia. Remember when there were that many Kiwis fleeing across the Tasman their numbers could have filled a rugby stadium? These days the shoe is on the other foot and Australia is talking about cutting taxes to stop the trickle turning into a flood.