Mayoralty race a nightmare for the bookies
The fight in October for Wellington’s mayoral chains may not be the biggest so far this century – that honour goes to 2001 when 14 candidates stood – but like this weekend’s rugby showdown at the stadium, it’s shaping to be a bookie’s nightmare.
For a start, all but one of the eight candidates (so far) have council experience: There’s a twoterm mayor, a sitting deputy mayor, a mayor from another city, and four high-profile councillors.
Then there’s the mish-mash of political leanings: There are four who will split the Green/Red vote, two who will split the Blue vote.
Then there are two of those Green/Red candidates who will likely also attract support from the Light Blue centre.
Throw in the fact that those votes will be cast under the single transferable vote (STV) system, which neither voters nor candidates in four elections have used properly, and the nightmare is complete.
STV works by voters ranking mayoral candidates in order of preference. If one gets more than half the votes, they win. If no-one gets half, the lowest polling candidate is eliminated and their votes are distributed according to their voters’ second preference. The process is repeated until someone gets to 50 per cent.
The problem with STV is the more candidates, the more chances of a result few people want or expect – as happened in 2013.
An analysis of that election shows 56,254 voted for mayor. Neither Celia Wade-Brown (Green), with 21,259 votes, nor John Morrison (Light Blue) with 18,904, got half the votes at first preference.
Karunanidhi Muthu (Beige) was then eliminated, but his 935 didn’t change anything.
Then it got interesting. Rob Goulden (Blue) was eliminated next, 572 votes going to WadeBrown, 704 to Morrison, 436 to Jack Yan (Beige), and 496 to Nicola Young (Blue). But 398 supporters had no preference and were not further counted.
Young went next, and her votes went 1664 to Morrison, 1214 to Yan – and 1207 to Wade-Brown. And a huge 1023 had no further preference and weren’t counted.
Morrison essentially lost on this distribution.
If he had attracted more Blue/ Light Blue support, and Young’s supporters had given him their next preference, he could have collected 2203 more. Add Goulden’s 398 uncounted, and Morrison could have had 2601 more.
The final nail was the fifth round, when 2795 of Yan’s supporters either didn’t like the others or didn’t understand STV, and their votes weren’t redistributed.
Morrison got 3250 and WadeBrown 3943 of his votes. WadeBrown won by 2480, but with better co-ordination on the Blue side, Morrison could have had a relatively easy win. It’s a prime example of the danger of multiple candidates of the same hue standing in an STV environment.
Each of the Blues attracted voters who didn’t understand the need to keep supporting Bluecoloured candidates down the list.
The Greens/Reds didn’t have that problem because there was only one candidate.
This election, the problem is exacerbated because there are multiple candidates of both hues.
For business, the issue is to identify three candidates pursuing a business-friendly agenda: visionary, with a record of leading from the front, building relationships, making hard calls, and who understand the fundamentals of business.
Then give them your first three preferences – your first to your preferred candidate, second to your second preferred, third to your third preferred.
That way, if your first choice is eliminated, your second will have a better chance of being elected. If your second doesn’t make it, your third preference might just help your third choice make it.
Don’t express any preference for anyone you don’t want as mayor. If you do, there’s a chance that preference could be allocated to your least-preferred candidate.
If you follow this, you will have a good chance of having a candidate elected who you can work with. That may not be your first-choice candidate.
The Wellington Chamber of Commerce will help identify the choices by asking them to respond to our election manifesto, to be released soon, and at our mayoral debate on September 8.
As for this weekend – my vote’s on Yellow. Go the ’Canes.
John Milford is the chief executive of the Wellington Chamber of Commerce.
The problem with STV is the more candidates, the more chances of a result few people want or expect.