It’s the veto votes that really count

which is where she placed in the previous vote.

There were some big movers in yesterday’s straw poll though Clark was not one of them.

But some insiders insist that she is far from out of the race yet.

That’s because of the clout carried by the so-called P5, permanent members of the Security Council, who hold sway over the top job, and who can take out a candidate at any time by exercising their veto.

Under the UN system, all 15 members of the Security Council – of which New Zealand is one – have the opportunity to vote by ticking encourage, discourage or no opinion.

But only the P5 can use the veto. Given the high number of ‘‘discourage’’ votes, at least one of the P5 countries is probably lined up against Clark.

But the New Zealand camp believe any votes against Clark are purely tactical and don’t kill her chances off just yet, while others like Argentinian Susana Malcorra and Bulgaria’s Irina Bokova are almost certain to be taken out by vetoes.

Even the consistent favourite, Portugal’s Antonio Guterres, is now picking up some votes in opposition.

Such is the diplomatic shadow boxing that goes on behind the scenes.

That’s why no one is counting Clark out till the dust settles. The big movement in yesterday’s straw poll shows how much things can change between votes.

The timing of the next vote could be crucial; potentially it could coincide with the UN General Assembly next month, when New Zealand is chairing the Security Council.

The Government won’t want Clark’s candidacy overshadowing the week.

But that vote may be put off till October because of other events.

That delay might suit Clark, as much as the Government.

It gives both of them more time to call in every favour they can.