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PM’S SHOCK RESIGNATION: Key gives English his blessing for top job
Prime Minister John Key’s resignation has upturned the electoral landscape. This time next week New Zealand will have a new prime minister and finance minister. And the country will be adjusting to the sight of one of its most popular prime ministers ever sitting it out on the back bench.
Key is painting the transition to his likely successor, Finance Minister Bill English, as business as usual. It is anything but.
Key’s bombshell takes National into unchartered territory. Nothing can be the same when a leader as popular, and as successful, as Key bows out.
In choosing the manner of his departure, Key has reinforced all the reasons for his extraordinary relationship with New Zealand voters.
The secret of Key’s popularity has always been his appeal to voters as one of those rare politicians where ‘‘what you see is what you get’’, warts and all.
The gaffes, the mangled English, his willingness to horse around made him ‘‘one of us’’. Even the embarrassment of his ponytail-pulling antics made him human; someone who wasn’t above making a fool of himself.
But it was Key’s handling of crises that cemented his leadership with the public: whether it was the global financial crisis, or the Christchurch earthquakes, or even Pike River, Key was the safe pair of hands that steadied us and steadied the country.
National’s big political gamble now is whether English, the man who has been at Key’s side throughout, can forge the same relationship with Kiwis.
Labour leader Andrew Little was magnanimous about Key’s departure and no wonder: on the scale of gamechangers, this is as big as it gets.
It is not too much to say that it could change the outcome of the next election.
On paper, English is the face of stability and continuity: the second leg of the dream team and a shoo-in for the job.
But Key’s power as prime minister and leader of the National Party has been so all encompassing that his departure will leave a huge gap no matter who the party selects to fill it.
English’s colleagues hold him in huge respect but will be nervous about his back story as a once-failed leader. In 2002, he carried the party to its worst ever defeat.
Key has given English every possible leg-up. He has timed his departure for this week’s big reveal of future surpluses, which are likely to be eye-wateringly huge. English will get the kudos for that.
But Key’s departure will also focus attention on how those surpluses will be spent. English may have to stare down rumbles from the Right-wing members of the caucus, who will sniff an unexpected opportunity in Key’s departure.
There is already jockeying behind the scenes. Judith Collins has been ringing around her colleagues, testing the waters. That will likely be a pitch for the deputy leadership, as much as the leadership.
Others in line to be deputy are the leopard-skinned Westie, Paula Bennett, and the more conservative Amy Adams. Steven Joyce is the leading contender to step in as finance minister.
But Key has also been careful to give English’s rivals very little time to rally.
Few of Key’s cabinet and caucus colleagues knew about his decision until just hours before he made the public announcement. English had weeks to prepare after Key gave him a heads-up.
And English’s opponents will need to tread warily. He has been anointed by one of our most popular prime ministers ever.
Overlooking English for the top job would risk losing him as finance minister. And a National front bench without Key and English would leave two big gaps.
Ironically, Key’s departure has played out almost entirely to script: for years, he has batted off questions about whether he would stick around for an election loss.
Back in Opposition, Key had a habit of chewing the fat with political reporters, and a regular topic was his belief that it would better to choose the time and manner of his going, than go out the way of his rival, Helen Clark.
Clark left New Zealand feeling hurt and betrayed by the voters who had carried her to such great heights of popularity. She failed to read the signs that they had fallen out of love.
No-one will begrudge Key leaving for family reasons. As he says, wife Bronagh paid the price of his popularity in the form of a lot of lonely nights.
But the love affair between Key and the New Zealand public has been a long one. And while the initial ardour might have cooled, most Kiwis would have been surprised to find out the marriage is over.