Leading the field
Three National contenders prepare to battle for the top job – but there could be more to come
Prime Minister John Key’s shock resignation has uncorked a possible four-way fight that will come to a head on Monday, with Finance Minister Bill English and Health Minister Jonathan Coleman seen as the front-runners.
English is still the favourite, after a strong endorsement from Key, with a stream of MPs heading to his office after yesterday’s National Party caucus meeting.
English, who confirmed yesterday he would seek the leadership, has strong front-bench backing, with Nathan Guy, Michael Woodhouse, Louise Upston, Nikki Kaye, and Hekia Parata publicly throwing their weight behind him.
English’s chances were given a big boost from the first poll to be taken after Key’s resignation.
The Fairfax-Nielsen poll showed English was favoured by 37 per cent, although 39 per cent were undecided as to who should replace Key. No respondent supported Coleman.
English was streets ahead of second-placed Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce, on 6 per cent. Joyce is a favourite to become finance minister in an English-led government but has not put his hand up as a potential leader.
Police Minister Judith Collins and State Services Minister Paula Bennett were tied on 4 per cent, while Justice Minister Amy Adams got 3 per cent.
But support is still ‘‘fluid’’ ahead of Monday’s vote, with Coleman’s campaign for ‘‘generational change’’ striking a chord with ambitious backbench MPs.
‘‘It’s a job I’ve been thinking about for a long, long time. I’m absolutely up for the challenge,’’ he said. ‘‘I believe I’ve got the energy, I’ve got the relative youth on my side and I’m absolutely focused on winning this leadership contest, but then also going on and delivering the very, very best for New Zealanders.’’
Collins too has thrown her hat in the ring, promising to reconnect with National’s ‘‘base’’. She said the party ‘‘needs the best person at the helm and I believe I’m that person’’.
‘‘I think we’re going to have to overcome any sense of complacency and any sense that it’s steady as she goes, just more of the same.’’ She also promised to negotiate hard with other parties – a signal she will take a tough line with NZ First and the Maori Party. But one influential caucus source said Collins may not have wide enough appeal with voters, even if she represented a strong strain of National thinking. She is seen as the candidate who will run the strongest line against English and his record, which included leading the party to a historic low in 2002. But English, who has ruled out retaining the finance role if he becomes leader, says he is ‘‘older and wiser’’ and the circumstances are different from 2002, though he agreed it was time for regeneration. ‘‘I was 39 years old then, with six children under 13 – so if nothing else I’ve got the opportunity to focus on the job much more now ... I’ve got significantly less family obligations.’’ English knows that being deputy under the popular leadership of Key doesn’t mean he’s a sure bet. ‘‘It doesn’t mean caucus will choose me as leader ... I’ll be focusing on building the sort of support that will lead to a unified cohesive caucus.’’ He said the caucus understood the need for discipline. ‘‘Unity’s everything in this business.’’ Changes he would make as leader may include a revamp of planning rules affecting housing, and there were ‘‘options for change’’ to the superannuation policy – where Key had promised none. Meanwhile, Bennett is tipped to join the race, though she’s touted as a likely deputy for English. Adams has ruled out a leadership bid, though she’s in line for deputy – as is Energy Minister Simon Bridges. Caucus sources said it was likely others may join as late as Monday. Fairfax-Nielsen’s poll showed a small but significant shift in voter intentions against National as a result of Key’s resignation. While 9 per cent said it was now more likely they’d vote National, 16 per cent said they were slightly or much less likely to vote for the party.