Weight of numbers gives edge to Smith

Steve Smith will score more test runs than Kane Williamson during his career. It’s a simple case of mathematics, because comparing their talent is like discussing whether you prefer Picasso or van Gogh.

Maybe it’s more like Mozart versus Beethoven; it’s about who can wave a wand better.

Regardless of your musical or artistic taste, it comes down to numbers.

Fitness and longevity come into it, but neither player looks like they’ll go the way of Inzamam on the physical front.

Burnout is a risk for both, given they captain their sides, but would appear unlikely as well. A world-class cricketer is a world-class cricketer, after all. Which means numbers play a huge part. Over the past five years Australia have played in 60 test matches to New Zealand’s 51. Take it back 10 years, and Australia have played 114 tests, to New Zealand’s 90. That’s 24 extra opportunities for Australians to score runs.

As good as New Zealand’s schedules have been as of late, they aren’t going to play in more test matches than Australia. There is no way. Given the rate Australia play test matches, even if Smith retired at the early age of 34, his numbers are staggering.

In 80 tests, and 148 test innings, based on his numbers today, he would score 9035 runs over the next seven years.

Smith would bring up his 50th test century in that time, at a remarkable rate of one every five innings.

You’re looking at Smith finishing with 14,286 test runs, 50 hundreds and 50 fifties. And, fitness and form permitting, that’s the low end of what he’s capable of.

As a red-hot Aussie, you can imagine he’d love a sniff at Sachin Tendulkar’s test runs record when he gets that close.

Compare that with the high end of Williamson’s range.

Let’s say Williamson plays until he’s 38 and never drops in form. That is 108 tests and 196 test innings over the next 12 years, based on current numbers.

Williamson would end with 15,143 test runs, with 46 hundreds and 69 fifties.

That works out at Williamson scoring just 857 runs more than Smith. To put it another way, that’s just 14 Steve Smith innings, or half a year’s work.

The numbers speak for themselves, but here’s one other thing to consider.

If Steve Smith can score bucket-loads of runs in India, he can do it anywhere. In fact, he averages more than 40 in every country he’s played, something Williamson falls just short of matching.

It would take an almighty slip in Smith’s form, or for him to retire half a decade earlier than Williamson, for the Kiwi captain to score more runs than Smith.

And as I said earlier, not many world-class cricketers fall that far from grace.