Global warming goal still ‘do-able’

Sticking to the Paris Agreement global warming target of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 is still possible – if emission reduction pledges are strengthened, scientists say.

The aim of the 2016 deal was to keep the increase in global temperatures well below 2C more than pre-industrial temperatures – preferably at 1.5C.

An international team of researchers said 1.5C was achievable as their modelling showed it would be possible to burn more carbon – up to 540 gigatonnes – and still keep warming at that point.

One team member, Professor David Frame, said: ‘‘This means it’s still possible if we really try. [But] if we really try is a question for politics and economics.’’

It didn’t mean that more carbon should be burned, though.

‘‘The point of it is if we hit the brakes really hard we could do less damage than we thought,’’ Frame said.

He acknowledged that sceptics might say the goal wasn’t achievable. ‘‘All we are saying is, physically, it might be a bit more possible than we thought.’’

Commitments to stronger emission reductions would have to be taken immediately. At present, warming was about .9C above preindustrial conditions.

They would have to include more investment in low carbon technology, increasing pricing on carbon, and penalties for high emissions.

Pledges made under the Paris Agreement would have to be strengthened in a few years’ time – and delivered on.

Before that agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published indicative

"If we hit the brakes really hard we could do less damage than we thought."

Professor David Frame

carbon budgets and emissions. However, the panel members did not look closely at the amount that could be burned while still achieving 1.5C warming.

That was because the target wasn’t set until Paris, Frame said. The new findings were a scientific revision of the pre-Paris research.

The study said: ‘‘Regular updates of human-induced warming based on a standard and transparent methodology would allow countries to adapt commitments to the emerging climate response.’’

That was supported by the Paris Agreement. It said commitments would be updated based on scientific and policy developments and the overarching temperature and emission reduction goal.

The group’s work accounted for the current state of the climate, uncertainty in the climate response, and the assumption mitigation efforts were adapted over time to achieve 1.5C warming.

Frame agreed it was a bit of positive news for an issue often seen as negative.