Turbulence set to continue

We’ve had some wild election campaigns but nothing quite like this. Tomorrow night New Zealand will have voted in a new government and no matter what the outcome, history will be made.

If National is back, it will be for a near-unprecedented fourth term. And if Labour is carried into power, it will be off the back of an extraordinary wave of popularity for its new leader, Jacinda Ardern.

But with just a day to go the outcome is still up in the air – the latest polls have National ahead, but neither side has enough support to govern without NZ First.

As campaigns go, there is only one word to describe it – turbulent. This has been reflected in equally turbulent polls.

Jacindamania was the unleashing of a bottled-up mood for change that had been waiting for a lightning rod like her.

Labour’s support soared – then the National fight back began, the party was shocked out of its complacency and forced to rewrite its election-year script.

National went on the offensive over tax, and plucked an

$11.7 billion fiscal hole out of the air, running hard on the theme of risk.

And, as Prime Minister Bill English hit the campaign pit stops in Otaki, Bulls and Whanganui on a final barnstorming run up the country yesterday, it was hard not to feel like the momentum had swung back behind National.

The change in mood, off the back of National’s attacks, was driven home to Ardern during her flying visit to Christchurch yesterday when a worker at Meadow Mushroom’s asked her if she was going to raise taxes – and again Ardern had to explain that Labour would not.

The Newshub and 1News polls have National at least seven points ahead of Labour – a lead said to be reflected in National and Labour’s internal polling though the gap is said to be closer to four or five points.

On those numbers, the Greens would take the Left bloc close to National’s score – leaving the final call in the hands of the wildcard NZ First.

But in this anything-goes campaign, the momentum could swing on the final day.

If the current poll numbers were reflected on election night, however, it would likely be English who picks up the phone to NZ First leader Winston Peters first – but he will be hoping it won’t come down to that.

English has been in a NZ First-National coalition before and knows it is a potential wrecking ball for a fourth-term government. Peters would come to the table with a big list of demands.

One of English’s first acts as leader would be making way for senior NZ First MPs by sacking up to a third of his cabinet.

That would be a recipe for unease and dissent on the back bench, where a number of up-andcoming MPs will see their promotion prospects disappearing down the drain.

English will try to relieve some of that pressure by giving the word to some of his longerserving ministers that it is time to go. Ironically, English was one of those who had intended retiring during this term of Parliament until John Key suddenly threw him the keys to the Beehive’s ninth floor.

But National will be hoping to claw its election night vote up to about 46 per cent, where many of those problems will go away.

English’s other big challenge will be satisfying the mood for change and the forces behind that, including a rising demand for the next government to deal with issues including poverty, housing – including the quality of such dwellings – and water.

National’s strategy for a stable fourth term will include adopting and implementing those policies, the same strategy that has seen it through three terms so far. Insiders acknowledge that the election has built expectations the next government will act on those core issues.

But the immediate priority will be negotiating a coalition deal. English and his team will likely get down to business on Sunday in Auckland, probably operating out of the rented apartment organised for English, his family and close aides.

Members of English’s kitchen cabinet will also be there – that’s Jonathan Coleman, Amy Adams, Gerry Brownlee, Steven Joyce, Simon Bridges and Paula Bennett.

If Ardern is the victor tomorrow night, however, things will play out very differently.

It is unlikely her deputy, Kelvin Davis, will be the deputy prime minister – that would be a job preserved for either Peters or – less likely – Green Party coleader James Shaw.

Ardern confirmed again yesterday that the prime ministership is hers and would not be on offer to Peters.

‘‘The top chair is off the table,’’ she said.

Peters may be offered other portfolios as well – and his team could expect some recognition too – although he is unlikely to personally take the foreign affairs job he has held before under Labour.

It is thought a regional development and economic role would be more likely on the table, especially since, at 72, Peters may not welcome the travel associated with the foreign affairs job.

The only certainty in her cabinet, as far as Ardern has publicly stated, is that Grant Robertson would be appointed to the finance job.

But the rest of her top team – including Phil Twyford, Megan Woods, Chris Hipkins, Andrew Little, Carmel Sepuloni and David Parker – would be in the engine room of her cabinet.