Fighting for survival,
The fate of the Ma¯ori Party depends on one man winning his electorate. Henry Cooke looks at how Te Ururoa Flavell’s campaign is going
Somewhere on the road from Taupo¯ to Rotorua, a young gas station attendant watches as the Ma¯ ori Party’s campaign bus eats up $400 of fuel.
A volunteer gets out to chat to him, and without any fuss the attendant promises the party two ticks and even asks for some flags for his car - all while co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell stands 10 metres away on the phone.
‘‘Come meet your new voter,’’ the volunteer yells to him. Flavell grasps the young man’s hand and leans in for a hongi and a chat.
In a local race to protect a majority just shy of 4000, every vote counts.
Flavell then jumps back on the bus and settles in for a nap.
It’s just days to the election, and Flavell is either in a fight for his life or cruising to his fifth victory. It depends on who you ask.
His Ma¯ ori electorate of Waiariki, which covers the northeast of the North Island from Turangi to Tauranga, is the only seat the Ma¯ ori Party holds. Given its party vote is well south of 5 per cent, it’s also the only reason the party - currently just two MPs - is in Parliament.
Labour, which holds the other six Ma¯ ori seats, is keen to unseat Flavell and destroy the Ma¯ ori Party for good.
High-profile, ex-television personality Tamati Coffey was picked to run against him.
But what if Flavell wins? Even with all that bad blood, he could easily end up in government with Labour or National, acting as a more reasonable - if less valuable ‘‘kingmaker’’ than Winston Peters.
It’s a lot of electoral weight for Flavell - the future of his party, and possibly the future government of this country - but he’s quietly confident.
‘‘I am confident of winning this seat, and I am aware of the burden on me to win this seat,’’ he says.
‘‘I’m confident in the polling we’ve done and I’m confident in our track record.’’
The polling had him 20 points ahead, before Jacinda Ardern took over the Labour Party and shot it back into contention. A more recent Ma¯ ori TV poll put him back in front.
The Ma¯ ori electorates are notoriously hard to poll, and even Flavell thinks the race is likely a big tighter than that.
He says the electorate is clearly keen for change, but he’s not sure if Labour is the change it wants.
On Sunday morning, the party will have a debrief and work out what will happen next.
‘‘We might get two phone calls, we might get one, we might not get a phone call. If we do get a phone call we will start to organise to get our negotiating positions set,’’ Flavell said.
He’s yet to talk to Ardern but since she is yet to repeat Andrew Little’s statement that the Ma¯ ori Party would be the ‘‘last cab off the rank’’, it’s likely the Labour-Ma¯ ori relationship is in slightly better shape than it has been.
And if he loses?
‘‘I’d be distraught. Because Ma¯ oridom over all our history has attempted various methods to show our part in the makeup of this country. Everything from the declaration of independence through to the Treaty, through to physical acts of war, through to passive resistance, through to protests, through to trying to chop down One Tree Hill, through to replicating with Ma¯ ori Parliament, through to religious movements. We’ve tried everything, on a belief that we need our own slot, our own space to advocate on our own behalf unencumbered by everyone else.’’
‘‘Now we’ve got this vehicle of the Ma¯ ori Party sitting in our hands - and we all say ‘let’s vote Labour’. I don’t get that. It doesn’t match up. We’ve got to show that we can shake the tree and still make decisions for ourselves.’’
Even as he discusses the possible death of his career, or his position to pick who would form the next government, Flavell’s campaign feels low-key.
It feels consistent with his record. Despite his status as Minister of Ma¯ ori Development, Flavell has never drawn the media attention his bombastic co-leader Marama Fox does. His staff describe him as obsessed with ‘‘process’’ and it’s process wins that he reels off as his big achievements: things like the slowly-won pardon of Ma¯ ori prophet Rua Ke¯ nana and sizeable land settlements in the area.
It’s also in complete contrast with his Labour challenger Coffey.
Coffey, who will enter Parliament on the list whether he wins or loses, is 23 years younger than Flavell.
‘‘[Flavell has] had the job for 12 years now, and he wants another three? He keeps saying ‘give me another three and I’ll sort out our homelessness’ and you know voters aren’t dumb,’’ Coffey says.
The contrast between him and Flavell is strong.
But those polls can’t be too far off. Of the six voters spoken to in Taupo¯ , only one was voting two ticks Labour - and his niece was a Labour MP.
For everyone else there was quiet, non-enthusiastic, but solid support for Flavell.