Roller-coaster ride ending – or is it?

It’s been a long campaign, full of twists and turns like we never imagined just a few months ago.

We lost three party leaders, saw Jacinda Ardern take Labour to polling heights it hasn’t seen in a decade, and the Green Party get close to exiting Parliament altogether.

But, with hours to go and all that behind us, it still looks like NZ First leader Winston Peters will be the one deciding who will gets to form a government.

How?

The final Newshub-Reid Research poll, out last night, has National well ahead of Labour – but still a way away from that 61-seat governing alone threshold.

It put National at 45.8 per cent – down 1.5 points – and at Labour 37.3 per cent, down 0.5.

That may look like curtains for the Left, but the Green Party regained serious ground to reach 7.1 per cent, meaning it could contribute nine seats to a Labour-led coalition.

That puts both blocs fairly close: National, ACT and the Ma¯ori Party would win 58 seats (assuming ACT wins Epsom and the Ma¯ ori Party wins Waiariki).

Labour and the Greens would win 56 seats.

Both could govern with the help of Winston Peters’ nine seats.

So, who will he go with?

If you can get into Peters’ mind, please contact us. He refuses to comment on polls he considers inaccurate and won’t talk about which party he prefers.

If you were a betting man, there are odds – and they are on Bill English remaining as prime minister.

Even though MMP easily allows it, New Zealand has never been led by a party that didn’t win the most votes.

While this milestone will be broken at some point, it seems likely the public will find it quite strange if National is way ahead of Labour on Sunday morning but ends up in Opposition, and that will be weighing on Peters’ mind – along with whether he can stand

If you can get into Winston Peters’ mind contact us. He refuses to comment on polls he considers inaccurate and won’t talk about which party he prefers.

working with the Greens.

But Peters will also be a bit wary of propping up a fourth-term government.

How did we get here?

You might have thought this race was Labour’s to lose. Perhaps it was.

The weeks of vagueness over its tax plans cost the Labour Party dearly, especially as National used that vagueness to mislead the public about Labour’s plans – in particular with a claim that Labour will raise income tax, something it has repeatedly ruled out.

Could things change?

Always. As of Wednesday, more than 800,000 people had voted – just under a third of all votes in the last election. That leaves a good chunk of winnable votes on the final day.

But today is the last day of campaigning. From midnight tonight to 7pm tomorrow, all the signs have to be taken down, we can barely put out any news, and the two big players – both of whom have now voted – basically just get to twiddle their thumbs.

The Electoral Commission will start counting the early vote tomorrow, so we could know a whole lot right at 7.01pm when it releases those numbers.

Then, with Peters back in the kingmaker seat, we could have to wait a few days to find out who will actually be in government. Here’s hoping they’ll be able to fly to Wellington by then.