Change coming, ready or not
Every three years we are reminded that our democracy functions if not perfectly, then at least perfectly imperfect.
After the 2014 election, the magnitude of Labour’s electoral challenge was daunting. They were over 21 points behind National. Never before in Labour’s century-old history had they made up that much ground from one election cycle to the next. Their best was Michael Joseph Savage, who raised Labour 12 percentage points to win in 1935.
In Wednesday’s Colmar Brunton poll, and notwithstanding justified analysis of Labour’s softening, Jacinda Ardern still matched Savage’s performance by landing Labour on 37 per cent, 12 points more than David Cunliffe achieved in 2014.
Ardern continues to challenge history with her performance, which is a truly stunning achievement.
In contrast, three years ago National’s 47.04 per cent victory placed the party in an even better position to win a fourth term than Keith Holyoake faced in 1966.
National is also trying to conform to its electoral history, by slowing the rate of its vote decline from third to fourth election, so it will be hugely encouraged having a third poll record the party over 45 per cent.
Whether National maintains this level of support through the counting of the specials will be pivotal in its attempts to secure for Bill English his own electoral mandate and piece of history. His performance, too, has been strong.
In the two significant polls of polls, National has opened between a 4-6 point lead, with the Newshub Reid poll further confirming National’s advantage.
That said, the centre-left and centreright blocs in the poll of polls are essentially tied, so the final hours of a long campaign remain set up with virtually every possible set of governing arrangement still possible.
Turnout tomorrow will be the penultimate variable that determines the ability of National and Labour to form credible government alternatives.
Tomorrow night, however, might less decide the shape of the next government than merely introduce us to the beginning of that process.
Special votes are expected to exceed last election’s haul of 300,000 votes, some 12 per cent of the total vote, because of the ease and accessibility of enrolling and voting at the same time during the advance voting period, as well as by anecdotal evidence of greater overseas interest from New Zealand’s voting diaspora in 2017.
Labour and the Greens will both look to the specials to gain further electoral strength, at National’s expense, so expect National to speak more assertively about its election night position while red and green camps talk more conditionally about theirs as they point to October 7 and the final count.
Every three years we are reminded that our democracy functions if not perfectly, then at least perfectly imperfect. Voting rates among the young, Maori and Pasifika remain stubbornly resistant to ongoing attempts to lift them, but there is nevertheless a lot to like about New Zealand-styled democracy.
Unlike the kingdom no longer united, or America, with its late-stage institutional bloat and constitutional rigidity – such as an Electoral College that can produce a septuagenarian child as president – New Zealand has already experienced its legitimation crisis after the 1984-92 disruption. The result was proportional representation.
In 2017, therefore, we have suffered no Trump or Brexit-like effect that risked undermining our election. If anything, a rush to the centre – embodied by Labour’s surge under Ardern, and with two-party support exceeding 80 per cent and confidence in the country’s direction – has inoculated us from the contagionlike effects of anti-establishment rage experienced elsewhere.
The choice of our next prime minister is also between two sane people. Not every citizen round the globe, or even for those living around the Pacific Rim, can claim the same.
One prime ministerial candidate could talk out loud about abortion without the sky falling or health clinics being bombed. The other candidate is sincere when he says he wants every Kiwi kid living in poverty to be lifted out of that disadvantage, one at a time.
Since that accident from above, resulting in the first MMP election in 1996, we have only had one real nail-biter election, 2005. This campaign has felt like that, with momentum shifts and uncertainty leading right up to election day.
With the finishing line in sight I think it can be said that if National does get to lead the next government it is on notice that it needs to be more responsive to voters’ concerns over social services under stress and its water management. Change is being demanded.
Ardern is leading generational change in our politics. It might surprise us and arrive tomorrow, or be delayed for three more years because voters prefer the security of what they know, wholly underpinned by English’s competence and experience.
Ardern is, however, only the most visible symbol of generational renewal that is happening across New Zealand society; in business, the media, in the arts, as well as in politics.
Whether she gets her breakthrough moment or not remains unclear, but, whatever happens tomorrow night, and during the weeks following, democratic renewal is finally
here, and that, as much as a warm spring day tomorrow, will put a smile on my face as I walk to the polls.
❚ Jon Johansson teaches political leadership and New Zealand politics at Victoria University of Wellington.