Ardern says ‘let’s do this’, we say let’s get this right

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has a massive, if not bloated, executive, wtih 28 ministers and 3 under-secretaries. Exactly half the Government is tied to the executive in some way. Why so big? It’s a juggling act.

The PM has clearly felt pressured to reward not only NZ First and the Greens but also her own Ma¯ ori MPs for their clean sweep of their seats, with appointments outside of Cabinet. It’s both strategically smart and expedient. It happens. Let’s make this clear: it’s an untried and vastly inexperienced Cabinet.

That’s not to say these people aren’t competent. They largely will be. The sky won’t fall in. The markets have barely whimpered. It’s a green Government if you look at the lack of experience. Only Labour’s David Parker, Nanaia Mahuta and NZ First’s Winston Peters and Shane Jones have ever been full Cabinet Ministers before.

Of the 31, only 10 ministers really matter. They make the decisions. What they do will decide whether this Government is ultimately successful.

Here’s my top 10:

1. Jacinda Ardern - Prime Minister: Ardern sets the tone and the priorities. Empathy, warmth and her genuine connection with people are her strengths. She’s a classy communicator and is showing signs of being an unselfish, mature and collaborative MMP leader. She has a huge to-do list, and she’ll be judged on whether houses are built, jobs are created and if the economy is confident and strong. Taking on the child poverty reduction portfolio is brave but risky.

2. Grant Robertson - Finance Minister: Robertson has the hardest job of all. He must juggle all the spending demands and look responsible, generous, prudent and visionary all at the same time. Good luck. Don’t forget the promised annual surpluses. On the up side the economy is strong and that will help initially. If it dives Robertson will be tested and the goalposts will have to move. Advice: avoid an $11.7 billion hole to stop a certain Steven Joyce saying, ‘see, told you so.’

3. Winston Peters - Foreign Minister: He’ll be overseas a lot pressing the flesh, having a drink and flying our flag. When he’s home he’ll be at the races or recovering. His NZ First team is way more experienced and disciplined than in previous years. His relationship with the PM is vital. Trust and communication is key. I predict it will work.

4. Phil Twyford - Housing and Transport: Needs a big chequebook to sit inside his bigboy Cabinet pants. If that happens he could make a real difference. Twyford must oversee the building of 16-20,000 affordable homes in the first term. National built just 98 over 31⁄2 years. He must get creative and be hands-on. Hands off has failed. He also needs to plan for buses, bus lanes, trains and highways to where people are building their homes. And we need to go up. New modern apartments. More please. The vision-less twits who built four-lane highways and ignored all other modes of transport belong as dinosaur tucker on the set of Jurassic Park.

5. David Parker - AttorneyGeneral, EconomicDevelopment and Trade: Parker is Labour’s chief policy wonk. He has a big workload and he’ll have to be careful not to get bogged down in the mindless detail when explaining complex issues to voters. Parker will be leaned on in as the senior voice.

6. Chris Hipkins - Education, State Services, Leader of the House: Chippie knows the education sector and where the

Keeping spending and borrowing under control will be a significant challenge, as will the wage demands.

bodies are buried. He won’t rock the union boat. But the tsunami is coming. Teachers want more pay, they’re ditching Auckland and what about charter schools? He is also running the house and overseeing ministerial spending. Hipkins will barely be seen standing let alone being the family man. Get used to Skype and lack of sleep.

7. David Clark - Health: Labour is promising more money, but money alone won’t solve a mess. Clark is a smart realist and he’ll do his homework. Some DHBs are chronically underfunded and mental health looks broken. Advice: don’t close emergency departments with ‘sorry full’ signs and don’t send people home at midnight.

8. Andrew Little - Justice and Treaty Negotiations Minister, Pike River: Has union and realworld negotiating experience and I predict he’ll prove to be a largely competent minister. If he can settle the last remaining treaty claims he’ll be a hero, but if he gets the families into the Pike River Drift he’ll be regarded as Superman Andy for life.

9. Shane Jones - Regional Development and Forestry: Officially Jones is now the $1b man. He’s been given $1b a year to literally put his money where his massive vocabulary is. So, can he transform the regions? Can he change the lives of young unemployed youth – many being young Ma¯ ori, or will he waste this chance of a lifetime? Do this well and the party is his. Red flag risk too with Jones. Expect anything.

10. James Shaw - Climate Change: This is the PM’s nuclear moment of our time. It’s a crucial job and given it’s in the hands of the Green’s sole leader, failure can’t be contemplated. Expect firm action. But also watch for flashpoints too. If Shaw and Peters clash, Ardern’s empathy and patience will be tested. I think Shaw will prove entirely competent and then some.

So it’s certainly an ambitious Government programme.

It’s way too early to say if it’s transformational.

Transformational to me means our lives are genuinely transformed. Poverty would be eradicated, education free and sophisticated, there would be decent-paying jobs, affordable homes and clean rivers.

Keeping spending and borrowing under control will be a significant challenge, as will the wage demands coming from Labour’s traditional support base, like teachers and public servants.

Many of these workers have been invisible to National, hence the avoidable teacher shortage in Auckland.

Planning, immigration, infrastructure, let’s get this right. Good luck.

Don’t squander this.