Final countdown in leadership race

OPINION: National’s leadership contenders will get just five minutes to put their case to the party’s caucus one final time tomorrow – and as the race goes down to the wire, it could make or break the chances of any one of the contenders.

Voting will start after the five candidates – Amy Adams, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Judith Collins and Mark Mitchell – each deliver a five-minute speech.

Insiders say there will probably be some MPs who only make up their mind on the day.

No-one is claiming victory yet in the five-way race – but nor is anyone conceding defeat. That means the would-be leaders still have everything to play for before tomorrow’s secret ballot.

Bridges and Adams are still said to be ahead in the race, though while Bridges is said to have the edge in a first-round ballot, she may edge ahead of him once second preferences are thrown into the mix.

But Joyce’s camp has been claiming the race is tighter. Collin’s camp suggests the ground has shifted since last week, and other sources suggest Mitchell, the wild-card contender, may be picking up more support than the others realise, particularly amongst the sizeable class of 2017.

All of this could just mean noone is telling the truth – and that is highly likely, both on the part of the contenders, and by the MPs, who are being individually courted for their votes.

National’s MPs will be spooked if they start to believe they are backing the wrong horse, because to the winner goes the spoils. That includes the power to dole out the party’s best jobs and plum frontbench seats.

But even if some contenders have gathered numerous expressions of support, the fact it is a secret ballot means that they won’t ever know if they have been

No-one is claiming victory yet in the five-way race – but nor is anyone conceding defeat.

double-crossed by their peers.

A caucus vote in 2003 created ill-feeling among National’s members for years after Bill English lost to Don Brash, having believed he had firm commitments of support from a majority of MPs.

There is another reason for every National politician to play their cards close to their chest – they will be under pressure from their electorate committee and voters to back a particular candidate.

Collins is the party favourite, and there has been an email campaign from National’s wider membership in her support.

It is hard to know how much effect that is having on MPs, however, with one caucus insider suggesting it was mostly ‘p...ing’’ people off.

No matter who wins, the unprecedented five-way contest and knockout ballot could thrust National into new territory, with a new leader who may not have been the first choice of a majority of the party’s caucus.

National leaders are usually rolled in a caucus coup, without the decision going to a vote.

Although a number of MPs put their hand up for the leadership after Sir John Key stepped aside, English was never in trouble of losing the vote.

But this time around there is no clear winner. That makes the second-preference votes for the race’s third, fourth and fifth placegetters crucial. They could potentially use their supporters’ second preferences to leverage a job or front-bench seat, though the candidates are all denying any deals on jobs or preferences ahead of the crucial vote.