Peters’ reign has only prolonged uncertainty

New Zealand appears happy to excuse [Peters’ comments] as Winston being Winston. Mercifully, so does Australia.

History is likely to remember the winter of 2018 fondly, whatever discontent is being shown by business now. As well as iconic images of Jacinda Ardern heading to maternity leave with her child, we shall see Winston Peters either jostling combatively with the media, or laughing, both trademarks.

For Peters, the spell as acting prime minister appears to fulfil something of a career-long dream, and the NZ First leader appears to be winning plaudits for his performance. At the least, it seems it could have gone worse.

The end of his time in the chair appears designed to be dramatic. As he departs for an international trip as foreign minister – a relatively rare thing compared to the travel schedules of his predecessors – Ardern will resume duties at midnight tonight.

In reality though, there is less to his stepping down than meets the eye. With a new Government already struggling to explain to the business community what it is about, the past six weeks have simply prolonged the uncertainty.

Although it is wrong to blame the plunge in business confidence entirely on the Labour-led Government, as National is trying desperately to do, it should not be a surprise that the situation has not improved in recent weeks, with the latest ANZ business outlook putting general business confidence at the lowest level in a decade.

A brilliant politician who has made a career on sensing the public mood, Peters rated his performance in the hot seat highly. At times, though, it has been hard to know what to make of his statements, what they were based on, or whether they were his thoughts or the Government’s.

When he was still deputy prime minister but fronting the post-Cabinet press conference in midJune, Peters appeared prepared to make inflammatory claims based on little evidence.

Asked about the comments of NZ First colleague Shane Jones, that John Wilson should step down as chairman of Fonterra, Peters claimed the dairy giant had cost ‘‘probably over a hundred million of taxpayers’ money trying to sort things out on the wharves and docksides of China’’. Asked about the basis of the claim, his office said that, rather than official advice from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the figure had been supplied from ‘‘someone in the shareholding community’’.

Repeating what must be, at best, an educated guess, is acceptable for a populist politician in campaign mode. But it is highly unusual when delivered from the Beehive theatrette.

Midway through his time as acting prime minister, Peters seemed to suggest in a radio interview that ‘‘the only transparent way’’ to build infrastructure in regions with strong tourism was to set aside a share of ‘‘something like GST’’.

The idea of giving a share of GST back to the regions has been raised by various politicians in opposition, including NZ First, and was an idea Labour flirted with. But the Labour-led Government is not considering such a move, at all.

In the face of calls from mayors for help to ease pressure created by booming tourist numbers, Peters gave populist soundbites about policy which no-one is planning to implement. Clearly, he was not expressing Government policy, but this type of episode is a distraction for observers still trying to work out what key parts of Government policy are.

While John Key and more recently Ardern faced criticism of drawing distinctions between MPs acting in their capacity as ministers and in a private capacity, Peters appears to be given latitude to skip between them as he chooses.

Take his goading of Australia over its flag, or his suggestion that former Australian prime minister John Howard may be interfering in New Zealand politics after a controversial speech at the National Party conference. The comments would have been considered extraordinary had they come from Ardern, and would usually have been considered extraordinary from any foreign minister. In the case of Peters, New Zealand appears happy to excuse them as Winston being Winston. Mercifully, so does Australia.

Aside from the possibility of offence taken by China, after a defence strategy paper made more pointed reference to concerns about the global superpower, the period of Peters as acting prime minister appears to have led to little damage.

But nor has this winter helped build familiarity in the new administration at a time when the economy is facing a tricky transition, with the boom in the construction sector behind us and the growth in tourism slowing.

In many ways, for business, uncertainty is worse than bad news, as there is almost nothing which can be done to adapt to it or plan for it.

Jacinda Ardern has made restoring business confidence one of the Government’s priorities. Whether or not she can persuade employers to share her vision, her return will at least give a better direction as to what it is her Government stands for.