Quake likely ‘in our life’

Most New Zealanders alive today will still be alive when the Alpine Fault rips in a magnitude-8 earthquake, say leading scientists.

Less certain is where the megaquake will hit, but the most likely is a south-to-north quake centred at Milford Sound, with intensity-7, 6 and 5 quakes rippling up the South Island.

The other options are a northto-south tear starting in Greymouth and heading southwest, or an epicentre near Fox Glacier, heading up and down the fault.

The scenarios were designed and developed as part of Project AF8, or Alpine Fault Magnitude 8, a partnership of all the Emergency Management Groups in the South Island.

Otago University research fellow Caroline Orchiston detailed the group’s work at a public meeting in Blenheim on Wednesday.

‘‘The Alpine Fault is a spectacular fault, it’s more than 800 kilometres long at its full extent,’’ Orchiston said.

‘‘The intensity, of course, depends on the type of ground you’re standing on and how far away you are from the Alpine Fault.’’

The goal of Project AF8 was to create a safer South Island through better preparation, said Orchiston.

The team developed its coordinated response discussions around a south-to-north earthquake because it was the most likely, she said.

‘‘It was scientifically credible but also it provided probably the most significant test for Civil Defence around the South Island.

‘‘As you can see, there’s a potential for more damage up in the northern part of the South Island, where more of the population lives.’’

The Ministry of Civil Defence approved a grant of $680,000 over three years for Project AF8, with work starting in 2016.

Studies at Alpine Fault excavation sites showed a large earthquake occurred on the fault every 300 years or so, with the last one occurring in 1717.

Kiwis needed to be concerned about an Alpine Fault quake, as it would likely ‘‘happen in the lifetime of many New Zealanders’’, Orchiston said. Plastic straw bans are a ‘‘kick in the teeth’’ for disabled people, an advocacy group says.

As businesses flocked to outlaw the single-use plastics, those who relied on them were being ignored, Disabled Persons Assembly spokeswoman Esther Woodbury said.

The bendy straws allowed many people to drink independently and the paper and metal alternatives were dangerous. ‘‘It’s really embarrassing as a disabled person to always have to insist on your rights.’’

Plastic straws have been labelled one of the worst items polluting the marine environment.

Mistaken for food, they are eaten by marine life and plastic traces were found in the human food chain.

In February, Wellington Hospitality Group announced it would stop using the straws in its 25 city venues, and council and environmental groups are eyeing a city-wide ban.

Woodbury said disabled people didn’t want an ‘‘us and them’’ issue but wanted others to understand that blanket bans didn’t work for everybody.

The Wellington woman wants businesses to let customers choose. ‘‘We spend enough time managing in an inaccessible world, this is just another thing.’’

Many of the eco-friendly replacements weren’t suitable for disabled people.

‘‘Paper straws dissolve and can become choking hazards and metal straws are obviously very hard; they can hurt someone with spasticity or a tremor.’’

Metal straws weren’t safe for hot drinks. Cornstarch straws were a good option.