Warming will change life as we know it

Life as we know it will need to change if the world is to limit global warming to a level that will prevent its worst effects – and it will need to change quickly.

A landmark global report about limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels found it remained technically possible but would require ‘‘rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society’’.

Not only would all countries need to make more aggressive cuts to emissions than ever before, it was likely carbon dioxide would have to be removed from the atmosphere, through unproven technology.

The findings could have implications for New Zealand, particularly in industries such as farming and tourism.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, was published yesterday. It was approved by representatives of 190 countries, and is the most comprehensive analysis of the steps required to limit warming to 1.5C to date.

The world has already committed to keeping warming ‘‘well below’’ 2C through the Paris Agreement, which also included a more aspirational goal of 1.5C.

The door to achieving that goal remained ajar but was quickly closing, the report found. It would require severe cuts to emissions across all parts of society almost immediately to be feasible.

The world has already warmed about 1C above pre-industrial levels, the report said, and the effects were apparent through increasingly severe weather events like storms and wildfires. To achieve 1.5C, the world as a whole would need to cut carbon emissions around 45 per cent by 2030, and reach ‘‘net zero’’ by around 2050.

Even then, carbon dioxide may need to be removed from the atmosphere.

The report’s greatest implication for New Zealand is likely to be its findings around methane. The world would need to cut methane emissions by about 35 per cent before 2050, which would have a severe impact on New Zealand’s economy if matched here.

The report’s only New Zealand lead author, Dr Bronwyn Hayward of the University of Canterbury, said limiting warming to 1.5C would require ‘‘life-altering’’ changes within the next 10 years.

‘‘There isn’t an easy way to do this,’’ she said. ‘‘If we don’t make these really difficult, unprecedented cuts now, we will have fewer options for sustainable development and for our economies, and we’ll be forced to rely on these risky, unproven, and potentially socially undesirable forms of carbon removal.’’

New Zealand had advantages, she said – it already had a high proportion of renewable energy. But it was unusual in that methane made up a big part of its emissions, because of pastoral agriculture.

‘‘We’ll be forced to rely on these risky . forms of carbon removal.’’ Dr Bronwyn Hayward

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