An ugly, dirty, desperate week in politics
It has been an ugly, dirty, desperate week in politics and there is no end in sight now. Someone in National needs to hold their nose and reach out to rogue MP Jami-Lee Ross to broker a ceasefire before any more people are hurt.
That’s how John Key’s National Party would have handled this problem – in-house, below the radar, and with the leaker dispatched by whatever means necessary.
Not the public, out-of-control, and hugely damaging ride that has accompanied Ross’ outing as the National Party leaker.
But it’s all spilt milk now. The last week has been like a crazy bull run, MPs and the media ricocheting from one moment of madness to the next as Ross leaked tapes and texts in an attempt to smear his leader Simon Bridges.
Ross failed spectacularly in his first attempts. If anything, the latest tape – where Bridges confronted Ross with allegations of bullying and harassment – did more to show the National leader as an honourable man than an army of spin doctors could manage.
But Ross won’t stop now; he is remaining in Parliament, precisely so he can continue to wreak havoc under the protection of parliamentary privilege.
There will be no limits – in an interview on NewstalkZB late yesterday, Ross named a female MP as one of the women he had an affair with, and threatened to lift the bedsheets on others.
Ross is in a unique position to follow through on his threats to burn the house down. He was one of Bridges’ closest friends in Parliament. He was the party’s Senior Whip. He knows where the skeletons are buried because it was his job to bury them. He was also the party’s bagman, one of its biggest fundraisers.
He is a man who prizes leverage. He accumulated secret recordings and text messages. He tried to prod his colleagues into bad-mouthing the leader, and many realise with hindsight that he was probably recording them.
The texts and recordings released so far by Ross have failed to prove any of his claims of electoral fraud. The reverse in fact – they exonerate National and Bridges.
But political donations are a murky pool. Some of the mud will stick over his allegations of dodgy donations and big money in politics.
No-one knows how many more recordings and texts there are. But having failed at dragging Bridges down, it is clear the next round of releases from Ross will be uglier and even more personal.
The bombshell Newsroom story that two women alleged they’d had toxic sexual relationships with Ross pushed the nuclear button on their release.
Ross accuses National of feeding Newsroom the story, alleging that one of the sources was an MP and two of them work for the party.
The story certainly sent shockwaves through Parliament. Labour MPs were just as rocked as their National counterparts. There was a feeling that a line in New Zealand politics had finally been crossed. And a fear that there may be no going back.
Parliament is never short of gossip about affairs between MPs, between MPs and their staffers – and, yes, journalists as well. The parties all have dirt files. But they rarely use it. It’s called the nuclear option for a reason.
All that has changed.
A slow drip-feed of scandal with Ross remaining in Parliament is the nightmare scenario for National.
Far better to end things cleanly in Botany, where Bridges would be assured of taking National to a huge win in a by-election.
Bridges could expect a huge sympathy vote for the act of treachery by his MP and former friend. Likewise, there would be a huge backlash against Ross for his ugly and destructive behaviour.
Voters might be engrossed by the play-by-play in National currently, but grubby politics is rarely rewarded at the polls. There is also a huge personal toll.
Ross has revealed his marriage is in trouble after admitting two consensual affairs. The ‘‘other woman’’ is also married.
National will be distracted, in turmoil and it will be impossible to rise above the look of a party in disarray.
Bridges, himself, ended the week looking stronger than when it started. But he is clearly feeling the pressure.
Bridges’ valve burst on Wednesday evening when he phoned political editors to warn them he had been defamed and his reputation damaged.
In his conversation with me, he threatened to walk away from our weekly interview because I was too negative. His MPs have also started circling the wagons, accusing the media of being hostile. Once the fortress mentality sets in, it can be the beginning of the end for parties.
It is a sign of how much Ross has rocked the party.
Just weeks ago, National was on a high, its poll ratings still solid, and the party still operating like a well-oiled machine, even if Bridges’ favourability ratings and personal poll ratings were the weak link.
Bridges’ caucus is rock solid behind him for now. They are angry and they can’t let Ross win. And no-one will want to step into the mess as leader when it will look like they are profiting from Ross’ brand of dirty politics.
But MPs know this will be doing them damage – they just don’t know yet how much.
They will take soundings over Christmas and the summer break and if National takes a hit in the polls, Bridges’ days are numbered.
It will likely be a bloodless coup. Soundings among MPs suggest that there is growing momentum behind Judith Collins as the next leader – she is a known quantity and the sort of attack politician who suits opposition.
The previous favourite, Amy Adams, has lost support after failing to fire as finance spokesman. Wildcard Mark Mitchell has support but might want to wait for better timing.
Collins would be unlikely to move on Bridges herself, however. It would take a letter of no confidence in Bridges to trigger a change and that won’t happen now – especially after the latest moves by Ross.
But if someone can’t find a way to end this whole sad, sorry affair, that time may come.