How will Auckland look in 20 years?
Big, brash and bold, Auckland is a city in the fast lane. But how will it look in 20 years’ time? Stuff asked the experts to gaze into their crystal balls to predict the super-city of 2038.
By 2038, Auckland will have cemented its status as one of the world’s ‘‘super diverse’’ cities.
It’s a grand experiment that will require new levels of tolerance among its residents.
The super-city of the future will be more culturally diverse than ever before, with higher proportions of Asian, Pacific and Ma¯ori people than it had two decades previously.
It will be the only New Zealand city where European residents have fallen below 50 per cent of the population.
The gulf between Auckland and the rest of the country in terms of demographics will also never have been wider. In the previous two decades, the city will have hosted 60 per cent of the country’s growth.
In the Auckland of the future, suburbs that are dominated by a particular group have become more entrenched, such as Howick (mostly Asian) and Manurewa (mostly Pacific).
In places with a majority Asian population, there is an ‘‘ethnic precinct’’ of Asian businesses, services and restaurants, much like parts of Mt Eden’s Dominion Rd in 2018. The same goes for Pacific-dominated areas.
Many parts of the city will have a distinct cultural flavour.
In 2013, Auckland had a majority European population of almost 60 per cent. In 2038, that number has fallen to 47 per cent.
That’s because other ethnic groups have lower median ages and higher fertility rates.
The face of Auckland 2038 will have changed in the following ways, according to projections from Statistics New Zealand:
❚ More than a third of all Aucklanders will be Asian; up from a quarter in 2013.
❚ The city’s population will be almost 20 per cent Pacific, up from 15 per cent in 2013.
❚ The proportion of Ma¯ ori living in Auckland will increase slightly to a quarter. The country’s Ma¯ ori population will increase to 20 per cent, from 16 per cent in 2013.
How it will work
Massey University professor Paul Spoonley said it was the proportion of Asian residents that would make Auckland stand out.
Meanwhile, Auckland will be the only New Zealand city where the European group is a ‘‘majority-minority’’.
‘‘We’re anticipating about 36 per cent of Auckland’s population in 2038 will be Asian,’’ Spoonley said. He cautioned the city could be even more diverse than the current data suggests, because Statistics NZ’s projections are based on the 2013 census and don’t take into account recent immigration trends.
At the moment, about threequarters of Auckland’s Asian population were born overseas, said Spoonley. But the number born in New Zealand will begin to grow, ‘‘and those who are Auckland-born, I think will be very different culturally and socially from their immigrant parents’’. The largest Asian group would be Chinese, followed by Indian, Filipino and Korean.
Challenges might arise out of this new, hyper-diverse environment, the professor said.
‘‘The New Zealand European population will age, but when you look at the 0-14 [year old] populations, more and more of them will be Ma¯ ori, Pasifika or Asian, simply because they have higher fertility, or they have ongoing migration.
‘‘So there’s that great power dynamic that will be largely New Zealand European, but there will be a mix of Ma¯ ori, Pasifika and Asian, who will be more dominant in the younger age groups.’’
Spoonley said New Zealand research had shown tolerance and understanding between racial groups came through two things: having higher educational qualifications, and crucially, ‘‘contact’’.