The race is on: Contenders vie for final World Cup spots
Two tight head-to-head calls and a couple of medical reports are potentially all that remains for the Black Caps selectors to ink in their Cricket World Cup squad of 15.
We’ll get a better indication next week when they name their squad to face India in five oneday internationals, but for now it looks as if the second spinner (Ish Sodhi versus Todd Astle) and backup wicketkeeper (Tim Seifert versus BJ Watling) will be the final tough decisions.
Let’s say there are 20 contenders remaining.
Two of those, Corey Anderson and Adam Milne who were frontliners in the 2015 team, remain sidelined from the bowling crease due to injury. Fully fit, both would walk into the squad but with every passing day their chances dip of being on the plane to London in May.
Neither has a confirmed return date to bowling in international cricket and in all likelihood the 15 names will be clear in coach Gary Stead and selector Gavin Larsen’s minds after the Indian series, with three more ODIs against Bangladesh to fine tune.
If Anderson and Milne both run out of time it makes the allrounder and pace bowling selections more straightforward.
Jimmy Neesham’s storming series against Sri Lanka has surely confirmed his spot. With two pace bowling allrounders likely, Colin de Grandhomme will be the other but needs to fire against India to avert any concern about his form.
Allrounder Doug Bracewell carried the drinks for all three Sri Lanka ODIs but isn’t out of the mix and may get a game or two against India. His accurate back-of-a-length seamers help his chances of featuring in England where the ball is unlikely to swing, but he probably only makes it if there are concerns about de Grandhomme or one of the quicks.
Tim Southee is the one player potentially causing Stead some worry lines, with four pace bowlers likely in the 15.
His horrors against Thisara Perera at Bay Oval, where full toss after full toss disappeared, were not what you want from your senior man and key death bowler. He was better in Nelson but at his 130kmh pace and with minimal swing on offer, Southee can be collared so needs to keep showing innovation and a cool head against India to avert any tough discussions.
Matt Henry, too, was mixed against Sri Lanka after an idle two months and a better gauge of his form will come against India with more overs under his belt.
For all that it’s difficult not to see a pace quartet of Southee, Henry, Trent Boult and Lockie Ferguson, the latter with the pace point of difference and showing his class in Nelson. A rapid return to fitness by Milne would complicate the pace equation and apply pressure to Southee or Henry.
Then there’s spin. Mitchell Santner, back and raring to go after knee surgery, is a certainty. Sodhi got the jump on Astle against Sri Lanka, impressing Stead, and looks close to having his name inked in.
Then there’s the question raised by former coach Mike Hesson on the Sky commentary: could Sodhi and Astle both make the trip along with Santner, given two spinners in the XI seems the done thing in England now?
That would mean either de Grandhomme or Neesham missing out, so that option is less likely, but still up for discussion. Astle needs to return soon in any case and show he’s back to his best, but he has a fan in Stead and offers batting depth too.
Tom Latham is the top wicketkeeper and will bat five, which leaves his backup as the toughest decision. It looks a 50-50 race between Seifert, the power hitter still not the finished article with the gloves, against Watling, the test keeper who will add experience as a trusted sidekick of captain Kane Williamson and can cover batting spots one to six.
Seifert may get more chances against India to sway the selectors. His dynamic hitting is handy where 300-plus totals should be the norm, but there are still blemishes with the gloves. Watling’s batting strike rate is the worry but he’s a dependable backup.
Henry Nicholls won’t be wicketkeeping cover but will be one of six batsmen, all straightforward picks. Martin Guptill and Colin Munro are set as the opening pair, leaving George Worker, Will Young and Hamish Rutherford as top order options if injuries strike.