Poll gut-punch for Bridges, Nats

Opinion: The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is bad for National, and ugly for leader Simon Bridges.

While a four in front of its result might not look like much of a crisis for National, the poll shows Bridges’ popularity sinking, and on last night’s result it looks like he is taking the party with him.

But there is another number that will scare Bridges more – Judith Collins passing him as preferred minister on 6.2 per cent means there is now someone voters see as a more credible leader than him.

The only question mark is whether Collins’ caucus colleagues agree. She has never gathered more than a handful of votes in caucus leadership contests. But momentum has been quietly building behind Collins within the caucus.

So what are the numbers? Labour is on 47.5 per cent in the poll and National on 41.6 per cent. Bridges’ preferred prime minister rating has sunk to 5 per cent, against Labour leader Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on 41.8.

Bridges’ camp will point to the timing of the poll – it was taken over a period when there was glowing coverage of Ardern at the world economic forum in Davos. It was also during a period of stunning summer weather, when politics is not front and centre for most people. But the poll was also taken during a period when the Government copped some flak, notably over its biggest fail, the KiwiBuild policy, which it has been forced to take back to the drawing board.

National has also had some other big hits against the Government, like the Karel Sroubek affair, while cost of living concerns, and concerns about a capital gains tax, have percolated over summer.

That is what will hit National hardest. There is nothing more demoralising to Opposition MPs than seeing their bullets hit without making an impact.

It is what Labour suffered for years against the teflon-coated John Key. That is why Labour cycled through so many leaders before Ardern.

It is worth remembering, of course, that Labour’s poll ratings had sunk to the low 20s before its leadership wobbles set in – the likes of Phil Goff, David Cunliffe and Andrew Little would have killed for a poll that put Labour in the 40s.

But Labour always had a security blanket in the form of the Green Party, which bolstered its numbers. Bridges has no such comfort in the form of potential coalition allies.

Is it time for National to panic?

Anecdotally, the Newshub poll is out of whack with National’s own internal polling, which is said to put it ahead of Labour.

But polls have a way of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies. And that is what Bridges will fear most.